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Putin’s Nuclear Doctrine Shift After Biden’s Move: Inside Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal.
On November 14, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to authorize Ukraine to strike targets within Russian territory using long-range missiles marked a significant turning point in the conflict. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin modified Russia’s nuclear doctrine on November 19, 2024, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. This move came shortly after Ukraine conducted its first attack on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. This development, combined with advancements in Russia’s mobile nuclear capabilities, raises questions about global strategic stability and its impact on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The RS-24 Yars, also known as the SS-27 Mod 2, is the cornerstone of Russia’s mobile strategic missile forces (Picture source: TASS/ Vitaly Kuzmin)
Russia possesses the world’s second-largest nuclear arsenal, comprising approximately 4,380 active warheads. Of these, 1,550 are deployed on strategic delivery systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers. An additional 1,000 to 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads, not covered by the New START treaty, provide operational flexibility. This diverse and modernized arsenal gives Russia a unique strategic depth. Mobile missile systems, in particular, play a critical role by ensuring resilient deterrence against potential preemptive attacks.
The RS-24 Yars, also known as the SS-27 Mod 2, is the cornerstone of Russia’s mobile strategic missile forces. Deployed since 2010, this intercontinental missile is mounted on MAZ-7917 or KAMAZ-7850 mobile launchers, providing exceptional mobility and concealment. Equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), the RS-24 can strike up to six distinct targets at ranges exceeding 12,000 kilometers. As of 2024, approximately 99 units were operational, primarily stationed in remote regions of Siberia and the Urals, supported by extensive networks of dedicated roads and secure bases.
The Topol-M, designated as SS-27 Mod 1, is an earlier version of the Yars. Introduced in the 1990s, this missile carries a single nuclear warhead with a similar range to the RS-24 but lacks the same advanced countermeasures against missile defenses. It also operates on mobile platforms, ensuring flexibility. Despite its gradual phase-out, 18 Topol-M units remain active, deployed in strategic locations to complement Russia’s deterrence network.
The RS-12M Topol, or SS-25, is an older generation ICBM that represented a significant advancement upon its deployment in the 1980s. Capable of carrying a single warhead with a range of approximately 10,000 kilometers, it is noted for its solid-fuel propulsion and operational simplicity. While it is being replaced by modern systems like the Yars, several RS-12M units remain stationed in isolated bases, bolstering Russia’s strike capability.
The Tu-160, known as "Blackjack," can carry up to 12 Kh-102 cruise missiles with nuclear warheads and has an operational range of 12,300 kilometers (Picture source: Vitaly Kuzmin)
Russia’s nuclear maritime capabilities are centered around its Borei-class submarines, equipped with RSM-56 Bulava missiles. Built by Sevmash, these nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) can carry up to 16 Bulava missiles, each capable of delivering six nuclear warheads. With a range of 9,300 kilometers and advanced countermeasures, the Bulava ensures a robust second-strike capability. As of 2024, ten Borei-class submarines were in service or under construction, primarily operating from bases in the Northern and Pacific Fleets.
Delta-IV class submarines augment this capability with R-29RMU Sineva missiles. Though introduced in the 1980s, these submarines have been modernized to extend their operational lifespan. The Sineva missile can carry four warheads and has a maximum range of 11,000 kilometers. While gradually being retired, these submarines remain active, providing flexible response options, particularly in Arctic operations.
Strategic bombers like the Tupolev Tu-160 and Tu-95MS add further flexibility to Russia’s nuclear triad. The Tu-160, known as "Blackjack," is the largest supersonic bomber in the world. It can carry up to 12 Kh-102 cruise missiles with nuclear warheads and has an operational range of 12,300 kilometers. Powered by four Kuznetsov NK-32 engines, it provides significant reach for strategic missions. Approximately 17 modernized units are currently in service. The Tu-95MS, or "Bear-H," is a turboprop bomber capable of deploying Kh-55 and Kh-102 cruise missiles. With a range of 15,000 kilometers, it excels in long-range strategic patrols, with around 60 operational units.
Russia’s tactical nuclear arsenal includes short-range ballistic missiles like the Iskander-M, a mobile system capable of delivering precision strikes at ranges up to 500 kilometers. Designed to carry nuclear or conventional warheads, Iskander-M systems are deployed in key strategic regions, particularly near European borders, posing a direct threat to adversary infrastructure. Hypersonic cruise missiles like the Kinzhal, launched from MiG-31 aircraft, enhance these capabilities with a range of 2,000 kilometers and exceptional precision. Additionally, the Kalibr-NK missile, used by naval platforms, provides high-precision strike capabilities at ranges of up to 2,500 kilometers.
Designed to carry nuclear or conventional warheads, Iskander-M systems are deployed in key strategic regions, particularly near European borders, posing a direct threat to adversary infrastructure (Picture source: Vitaly Kuzmin)
New-generation strategic systems like the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone showcase Russia’s technological advancements. The Avangard, capable of maneuvering at hypersonic speeds, is designed to evade missile defenses. Poseidon, meanwhile, is engineered to devastate coastal areas with a massive nuclear payload. These systems bolster Russia’s deterrence posture amidst escalating international tensions.
Recent revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine highlight a strategic shift. Previously, the use of nuclear weapons was limited to existential threats. The updated doctrine now allows their use in response to severe threats to Russian sovereignty or in retaliation to a joint attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power. These changes aim to deter states backing Ukraine while maintaining strategic ambiguity to complicate adversaries’ planning.
Despite these developments, the likelihood of Russia deploying nuclear weapons remains low but cannot be dismissed. Tactical nuclear strikes, if considered, would likely target sparsely populated areas to minimize international backlash. However, such an action carries significant risks of isolating Russia further on the global stage. As Russia continues to modernize its mobile nuclear forces, it seeks to combine deterrence, intimidation, and strategic flexibility, presenting complex challenges for all parties involved in the conflict.