US finally allows Ukraine to target Russian territory with ATACMS missiles.

As reported by the New York Times on November 17, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets inside Russia. This decision marks a notable shift in U.S. policy and comes two months before President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has expressed intentions to limit further U.S. support for Ukraine, is set to take office. The authorization follows the deployment of more than 10,000 North Korean troops to assist Russian forces in the Kursk region, where Ukraine is facing a significant offensive involving approximately 50,000 Russian soldiers.
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ATACMS strikes targeting command and control centers, advanced air defense systems like the S-400, railway hubs, and supply depots could disrupt Russian logistics, reduce the availability of resources, and weaken operational coordination. (Picture source: US DoD)

In May 2024, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers urged the Department of Defense to permit Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russian targets. However, the Biden administration initially avoided such measures, citing concerns about potential escalation and direct confrontation with Russia. By September 2024, policy discussions began shifting in response to intensified Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including energy facilities, which caused civilian casualties and disrupted critical services. This led to an incremental adjustment in U.S. policy, aligning with increasing demands for Ukraine to have expanded capabilities to deter and respond to these assaults.

The recent authorization permits Ukraine to target Russian military infrastructure such as troop concentrations, logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines. This capability allows for operations deeper within Russian territory than previously permitted. For example, recent strikes on Russian airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk using ATACMS destroyed helicopters and damaged aviation infrastructure. Similar strikes targeting command and control centers, advanced air defense systems like the S-400, railway hubs, and supply depots could disrupt Russian logistics, reduce the availability of resources, and weaken operational coordination.

The introduction of over 10,000 North Korean soldiers into the conflict has contributed to the decision to authorize long-range systems. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, "The rockets will speak for themselves," implying forthcoming operations utilizing these systems. Previously, Ukraine had been limited to shorter-range systems like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which were restricted to targets near the border. The expanded range of ATACMS could allow for more strategic targeting in areas such as the Kursk region, where Russian and North Korean forces are concentrated.

Ukraine received its first U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in October 2023, which were initially used to target Russian airbases in Berdyansk and Luhansk. These missiles are compatible with the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), both of which have been provided to Ukraine by Western allies. The M270 MLRS, in particular, has been modified by Ukrainian forces to accommodate ATACMS, enhancing their long-range strike capabilities.

The Biden administration’s decision has been debated within the U.S. government. Supporters believe the measure is necessary to counter escalating threats from Russia and North Korea, while opponents cite concerns about retaliation. Some intelligence assessments warn of potential Russian responses, including sabotage in Europe or attacks on U.S. and European military installations. Representative Michael R. Turner of Ohio, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, criticized the timing of the administration’s decision, stating, “President Biden should have listened to President Zelensky’s pleas much earlier.”

Ukraine’s control of Russian-held territory in Kursk may provide leverage in future negotiations, potentially allowing Ukraine to trade it for land currently under Russian occupation. However, if Russia’s offensive in the region succeeds, Ukraine could lose this strategic advantage. The ability to conduct strikes on key military and logistical targets may influence the outcome of this conflict, which remains uncertain.

The incoming administration has signaled a different approach to the war. President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance have suggested policies that could involve reduced military support for Ukraine and potentially allowing Russia to retain control of occupied territories. This contrasts with the current administration’s decisions, which have focused on expanding Ukraine’s capabilities. Allies like Britain and France have supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles such as the Storm Shadow and SCALP. However, due to the use of U.S. technology in these weapons, their deployment on Russian soil required U.S. approval.