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Focus: Several Armed Groups Seize Parts of Syria in Major Offensive Against Assad Regime.
On November 27, 2024, a rapid offensive launched by rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS) and Turkey-backed factions, resulted in the swift capture of Aleppo, marking a significant turning point in the Syrian conflict. In just three days, the rebels seized most of the city, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). The rebel forces now control the majority of Aleppo, with the exception of a few areas held by Kurdish forces.
Anti-Assad forces have captured a Russian-made Pantsir air defense system in Safirah, near Aleppo (Picture source: ANS)
The offensive also allowed the rebels to make significant advances south of Aleppo, capturing strategic locations such as Khansir and the Sheikh Najjar industrial zone. This progress threatened key supply routes for the Syrian army, exacerbating tensions on the ground. The capture of Khanasir and the highway connecting Aleppo to the Hama province further isolated the city, making it more difficult to supply reinforcements and equipment to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
At the heart of this offensive are several key actors. Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS), a jihadist group formerly affiliated with Al-Qaeda and now one of the most powerful in Syria, leads the rebel operations. HTS controls the Idlib region and aims to establish an Islamic emirate. The Syrian National Army (ANS), backed by Turkey, also plays a major role, pursuing strategic objectives aligned with Ankara, including the control of border areas to limit Kurdish influence in the region.
The rebel groups primarily face the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), supported by Russia and Iran. Despite being equipped with modern military equipment, the Syrian forces have struggled to contain the rebels' rapid advances. Iranian-backed militias, such as Hezbollah, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are also key players in the conflict, with the former supporting the regime and the latter directly clashing with the Turkish-backed factions.
In response to the fall of Aleppo, the Syrian regime reinforced its military presence around Hama in an attempt to contain the rebel advance. Additional units, including the 25th Special Forces Division, were deployed to the province, aiming to block the rebel offensive progressing toward Maardis, located just 10 km from Hama city. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes have been intensified on rebel positions in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. However, these strikes appear to have had limited impact, as the rebels continue their rapid progression.
Despite these airstrikes, Russia’s support, particularly with the replacement of its military commander in Syria, has not been sufficient to reverse the trend. Iran, for its part, seems to have limited its direct support for the regime, weakened by its losses in other theaters such as Ukraine. This situation has contributed to the weakening of pro-Assad forces, whose capabilities have been severely eroded by years of conflict.
Syrian rebels have strengthened their military capacity through a combination of captured equipment, defections from the Syrian army, and foreign support. During the offensive, the rebels deployed an armored column, including troop transport vehicles and Syrian army tanks captured in the strategic locality of Khan al-Assal. The weapons used by the rebels include Kalashnikov assault rifles, portable rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), anti-tank missiles, and occasionally captured anti-aircraft guns. Foreign support, particularly from Turkey, facilitated the delivery of more sophisticated military equipment, allowing the rebels to intensify their offensives against the regime.
Meanwhile, Syrian forces continue to rely on an arsenal supplied mainly by Russia and Iran. Pro-regime forces are equipped with T-72 and T-90 battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, and an air force that includes Su-24 and MiG-29 fighter jets, along with Mi-24 attack helicopters. However, these capabilities have been severely weakened by battlefield losses and the gradual withdrawal of Russian and Iranian support.
The loss of Aleppo to the rebels represents a significant blow to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which now faces an increasingly well-armed and organized insurgency. This offensive highlights the growing vulnerabilities of the regime, which has been weakened by years of war and increasingly distant foreign support.
The conflict in Syria also remains a destabilizing factor in the region, with implications for international relations, particularly with regard to Turkey and the Kurds. The rebels continue their efforts to overthrow the Assad regime and establish an alternative government, while HTS seeks to impose Sharia law in areas under its control. The ANS, meanwhile, is directly targeting Kurdish influence, particularly along the Turkish border, where tensions are high.
The resurgence of fighting in Syria underscores the failure of diplomatic efforts to reach a lasting political solution. The risk of regional escalation remains high, particularly due to tensions between Turkey and the Kurds, as well as the increasing involvement of international actors, including Russia and Iran.
Faced with the loss of Aleppo, the regime of Bashar al-Assad will likely need increased external support to attempt to retake the city. However, with the opposition better armed and supported by strategic allies, reclaiming the city could prove extremely difficult. The international community, while continuing to call for a political solution, once again finds itself confronted with a conflict that appears to be stretching indefinitely, within the context of ongoing humanitarian suffering.
The rebels, now better equipped and more organized, seem prepared to continue their offensives, increasing uncertainty about the future of the Syrian regime.