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Iran and Russia to Support Syrian Regime with Airstrikes and Troop Deployments.
The rapid offensive by rebels in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS) and other Islamist factions, which resulted in the capture of Aleppo in November 2024, took on an international dimension with the direct involvement of several regional powers. The rebels, supported by Turkey, are attempting to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad, while the regime receives crucial military support from Russia, Iran, and Iraq, all of which view Syria as a key area for their geopolitical objectives in the region.
Screenshot of a video showing pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite militias crossing into Syria from Iraq to support the Syrian regime (Picture source: X Channel RestitutorII)
Since 2015, Russia has played a central role in supporting Assad’s regime through airstrikes targeting rebel and jihadist positions. These strikes have helped stabilize the Syrian government, enabling it to regain control of strategic territories. In November 2024, the Russian military intensified its bombardment in northern Syria, aiding Syrian forces in their battle against the advancing insurgents in Aleppo. Russia has significant strategic interests in maintaining its influence in Syria.
By supporting Assad’s regime, Moscow secures its military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim, crucial for projecting its power in the Middle East. These bases allow Russia to compete with the influence of the United States and its allies while reinforcing its role as a key regional player. In addition to its military interests, Russia is also safeguarding its economic interests, benefiting from arms contracts with Syria and commercial opportunities related to the country's reconstruction.
Russia’s involvement in Syria is closely tied to its support for Iran, which also plays a significant geopolitical role. By backing Assad, Iran secures a vital land corridor connecting Tehran to the Mediterranean, passing through Syria and Lebanon. This corridor is crucial for supporting Hezbollah and countering the influence of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran maintains its "axis of resistance," a strategic alliance with Syria, Hezbollah, and certain Iraqi groups.
The deployment of Iraqi Shiite militias, such as Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, to support Assad against the advancing rebels illustrates this dynamic. These groups have fought in Syria since 2012, and their re-engagement in the face of the rebel attack in Aleppo highlights the importance of Syria to Iran. By supporting the Syrian regime, Iran strengthens its influence in the region, while solidifying its strategic alliances with Assad’s regime and key actors like Hezbollah.
For Iraq, Syria is seen as a strategic ally in the fight against extremism, particularly in relation to Sunni and Kurdish groups. Iraq’s support for Assad is part of its regional defense policy, especially within the context of the Iran-led axis of resistance. By supporting the Syrian regime, Iraq secures its borders, preventing the spread of influence from Sunni rebels or Kurdish groups, which are viewed as threats to Iraq’s internal stability.
The Iraqi government reiterated its support for Syria after the loss of Aleppo, emphasizing that Syria’s security is directly linked to Iraq’s security. Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet Al-Abbasi visited the Iraq-Syria border to ensure its security, despite the escalation of the conflict. Moreover, Iraqi Shiite militias have been sent to Syria to support the Syrian army and secure strategic positions.
Turkey, on the other hand, actively supports the Syrian National Army (ANS), a Syrian rebel group, to counter Kurdish influence along its borders. Ankara views the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurds, as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group considered a terrorist organization by Turkey. By supporting the rebels, Turkey seeks to establish a buffer zone along its borders to limit Kurdish autonomy in Syria. However, Turkey’s involvement in Syria places it in opposition to other regional powers, such as Russia and Iran, which support Assad’s regime. This indirect confrontation complicates the Syrian geopolitical situation, especially with the presence of Kurdish forces, which are opposed both to the ANS and the Syrian regime.
Israel, although not directly involved in combat, plays an indirect yet significant role in the conflict’s dynamics. Israel’s involvement in Syria is driven by national security concerns. Although the Assad regime is a historical adversary, its fall could lead to even greater instability, which would be concerning for Israel. The Syrian regime, though hostile, maintains some control over strategic areas like the Golan, which could be used by enemies to further their own objectives. The disappearance of Assad’s regime could open the door for the rise of extremist groups, making the situation even harder for Israel to manage. Additionally, a regime change in Syria could strengthen Iranian and Hezbollah influence, directly threatening Israeli security. Therefore, Israel prefers the stability of a Syrian regime, even if repressive, to better control risks associated with Iranian influence and Tehran-backed militias.
The future outlook of the conflict in Syria remains uncertain, with a fragile balance between the rebel forces and Assad’s regime, supported by its regional and international allies. While the rebels continue to make progress, notably in capturing strategic territories like Aleppo, their ability to maintain this advance in the face of intensified Russian airstrikes and increased engagement of Iran-backed militias remains uncertain.