Analysis: Russian Sabotage Across Europe A Declaration of War or a wrong trail ?.

At least four European intelligence services have warned their governments about "imminent" acts of sabotage by Russia on European soil, the Financial Times revealed this on May 5, 2024. The reports indicate that Russia is intensifying its efforts to carry out bombings, fires , and sabotages across the continent, signaling its engagement in new form of conflict with the West.
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Diehl factory buring in Berlin on May 3, 2024 (Picture source: X)

Thomas Haldenwang, the head of the German intelligence service ( BundesNarichtenDienst), reportedly warned his French, British, and Swedish counterparts of the "risk of state-initiated Russian sabotage" which "has significantly increased." A wave of Russian attacks on European soil "with high potential for human and material damage" is even imminent, according to the German intelligence chief.

Recent incidents suggest that this destabilization operation is already underway. Here is a comprehensive list:

Wales:

• An explosion occurred on April 16, 2024, at the BAE Systems factory in Glascoed.

England:

• A fire broke out in a warehouse containing shipments bound for Ukraine; those arrested claimed they were acting on orders from Moscow (end of April).

Sweden:

• A series of train derailments suspected of being acts of sabotage backed by the Kremlin are currently under investigation by local authorities (March-April).

Germany:

• Two German-Russian nationals were arrested for planning attacks against military and logistical sites.
• A fire occurred at the Diehl Defence building in Berlin on May 3.

Estonia:

• The prime minister's vehicle was attacked, deemed a pro-Russian action by security services.

Czech Republic:

• Attempts at sabotage have been reported on the country's railways between March and April.

European Airspace:

• GPS jamming actions have been making it impossible for civilian aircraft to fly over certain areas for a few months, predominantly in Eastern Europe.

According to analysts, Russia's aggression is not limited to physical attacks but also includes disinformation campaigns and cyber hacking.

Maps of alleged Russian sabotage in Europe since February 2024  (Picture source: X)

The expulsion of 600 Russian intelligence officers across the continent, who operated under the guise of diplomatic activity following the invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a strategic shift. Russia is now using proxies and coordinating intelligence operations more systematically.

European governments are responding to this growing threat through increased cooperation and vigilance. NATO declared last month that it was deeply concerned about Russia's "malicious activities" on the territory of its allies and urged member states to remain vigilant in the face of the evolving threat. Security services across the continent are on high alert, seeking to identify and mitigate potential threats.

The Russian objective behind these attacks is to test European organizations in areas related to the defense universe but not purely military, such as logistics, diplomatic support, and civilian capabilities like GPS. It's important to keep in mind that while these actions are purportedly by Russians, in most cases the arrested individuals have not acknowledged Russia's involvement, so these are assumptions.

Therefore, the situation must be actively monitored, as the risk of real sabotage actions carried out by Russia is increased due to the growing involvement of European states in supporting the war and the recent bellicose statements made.