Analysis : US finally accept Ukranian long range strike on Russian territory.

Today, the Americans have granted Ukraine the right to strike deep into Russian territory with the provided equipment, without any restrictions. This means that the Ukrainians can use American long-range weapons to conduct offensive actions on Russian soil.
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In February 2023, US President visits Zelenksy in Kiyv (Picture source: Ukrainian presidency)

This unrestricted authorization echoes the French authorization to strike only military bases originally on Ukrainian soil to avoid collateral damage. However, the Ukrainians have not imposed these restrictions. It is foreseeable that these materials will be used alongside actions carried out in depth, or perhaps in the event of an incursion into Russian territory as has happened at least twice in the Belgorod region.

The United States is not the only one to have authorized these deep strikes; the French, Germans, Latvians, and Poles have done so as well.

Opponents of this decision have already reacted by declaring that these actions will make nations guilty rather than complicit, which could lead to the spread of the conflict. However, this decision marks a major shift in the stance of Western nations on the Ukrainian issue. Indeed, France is positioning itself as a leader in sending trainers on the ground and seems to receive positive feedback from several European countries.

After more than two years of conflict, it seems that supporters who once feared the consequences of sending heavy weapons are now ready to face massive involvement and the spread of the conflict.

In anticipation, the Poles have reinforced their border by deploying not only a fence, which has been in place since the migration crisis at the Belarusian border in 2021, but also anti-tank obstacles (dragon's teeth) and fortified firing positions. Recently, military units and border guards have been redeployed to the area.

We are witnessing a complete breakdown in diplomatic relations and massive rearmament in Europe, which inevitably revives real quarrels over the leading nations in this dynamic. Analysts speak of a return of the Iron Curtain and a "pre-war" Europe.

In June, the Peace Summit will be held in Geneva, Switzerland, which is now considered futile, as Russia is not invited. It is not a summit for negotiated peace but rather a coalition summit. The French have announced that, alongside this summit, announcements will be made about a coalition of European trainers sent to Ukraine.

This American and European decision is therefore part of a sustainable approach to support Ukraine and amplify this support without restriction. It is this evolution that makes the situation particularly volatile and requires significant monitoring.