A Wagner Group fighter giving instructions to a Belarusian soldier, on July 14, 2023, near Osipovichi, Belarus. (Picture source: Belarus MoD)

On Sunday, 26 August 2024 , the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Belarus to withdraw its troops deployed at its border and to "cease its hostile actions."

Citing intelligence, it accuses Belarus of "concentrating a significant number of personnel, including special operations forces, weapons, and military equipment" in the Gomel region, near Ukraine's northern border, "under the guise of exercises."

"We warn Belarusian officials not to make tragic mistakes for their country under Moscow's pressure, and we urge its armed forces to cease their hostile actions and to withdraw their forces from the Ukrainian border to a distance beyond the firing range of Belarusian systems," the Foreign Ministry stated in its release.

Ukraine indicated that Belarusian troops, as well as mercenaries from the Russian Wagner group, had been deployed near the border. The two countries share a border of 1,084 km.

"We warn that in the event of a violation of Ukraine's border by Belarus, our state will take all necessary measures to exercise the right of self-defense guaranteed by the UN Charter," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared. "Therefore, all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Ukrainian armed forces."

It also emphasized that the region where the Belarusian troops had gathered was close to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, struck by the disaster, and stated that any military exercise conducted in this region constituted a "threat to Ukraine's national security."

Military parade during Belarus- Russian exercises ( Picture source: Russian MoD)

Last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that the country had moved about a third of its forces towards the border with Ukraine. However, Lukashenko blamed Ukraine for the sharp escalation in tensions. He accused Ukraine of aggressive policies and of having sent over 120,000 soldiers to its border with Belarus on August 18. The following day, Belarus announced it had deployed planes, air defense forces, and an arsenal to the Ukrainian border.

Belarus accused Ukraine of violating its airspace during its attack on the Russian region of Kursk on August 6. Minsk declared for the first time the movement of soldiers towards the border with Ukraine as an act of self-defense on August 10. Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stated that Belarus was "ready to take retaliatory measures" if Ukrainian soldiers entered its territory.

However, Ukraine has rejected Belarus' allegations. It refuted Lukashenko's claims that Kyiv had sent 120,000 soldiers to the border. On Sunday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that it "had never taken and would not take any hostile actions against the Belarusian people."

Russia has not really spoken on the subject, however, a well-known mercenary company, the Wagner Group, which reactivated its traditional broadcasting channels a few months ago, has spoken out. The Wagner Group announces that today, the employees of PMC "Wagner" are working only in Africa and Belarus. There are no subordinates of the Company either in the Russian Guard, the Ministry of Defense of Russia, or elsewhere.

Specifying that at this stage, the "Wagner" group is not participating in the special military operation, however, it does not rule out returning to it soon. The group announces that it is actively training and training Belarusian military personnel.

Belarusian soldiers from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) attend a ceremony marking the end of the CSTO mission in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on January 13. 2022  The Russia-led forces had been dispatched there to support the government in facing what the Russian Ministry of Defense described as riots. (Picture source: AFP)

Belarus has maintained close political and economic relations with Russia since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Putin, and his country has supported Russia throughout its war against Ukraine. In March 2022, shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Belarus evacuated its embassy in Kyiv as a sign of support for Moscow. Belarus has also allowed Russia to station its troops on its territory, enabling Moscow to use its ally's territory as a launchpad to attack Ukraine from the north. Ukraine's Western allies, particularly the United States, have imposed a series of sanctions on Belarus due to its support for the Russian war, including financial sanctions, export controls, airspace restrictions, and visa restrictions for officials.

So far, Belarus has yet to engage in direct military conflict with Ukraine—and the current buildup of troops along its border raises fears of a change of course.

The Kursk incursion embarrassed Russia, which in turn sought to divert attention from this setback.

The Lukashenko regime is a completely vassal state of the Kremlin, but it is more advantageous for Russia to keep it as a launchpad for military operations rather than to engulf it in war. As soon as they act this way, it creates much more instability than necessary, with the risk of losing the stability of the regime in Minsk and prompting a harsh international response. It is therefore possible that it could be Russian units or units wearing Russian colors that open a second front unless a border incident occurs.

It will be much less unstable to respond to the death of a border guard than to launch a war without provocation.