Serbia Officialy Denies It Will Provide MiG-29s to Ukraine as Part of French Fighters Deal.

In a move signaling a shift away from reliance on Russia for arms supplies, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced on August 29 the finalization of a €2.7 billion ($3 billion) contract to purchase 12 French-made Dassault Rafale fighter jets. The agreement, previously hinted at during a visit to Paris in April and taking nearly two years to finalize, was announced at a joint press conference in Belgrade with French President Emmanuel Macron, who was on a two-day visit to Serbia.
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French RAfale fighter ( Bottom) to replace old soviet Mig-29 ( Top)  (Picture source: Spotters pages on Facebook)

The French president called the bilateral agreement to supply nine single-seat and three two-seat fighters in 2028-2029 "historic and important," stating that it demonstrated "strategic courage and a true display of European spirit" on Serbia's part.

Shortly after the announcement, several Serbian and Russian media outlets reported that one provision of the agreement was that France would reduce the sale price by €400 million ($443 million) in exchange for Serbia transferring some Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, which Paris would then send to Ukraine.

Doubts about the accuracy of these claims quickly emerged, as Serbia has not only consistently denied providing any military aid to Kyiv and refused to join international sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, but the number of jets allegedly promised by Belgrade—36 MiG-29s—exceeds the total number it actually possesses by more than 20. The Serbian Defense Ministry's website lists only 14 MiG-29s in service, a figure confirmed by several public sector analysts. Of this total, four were inherited from Yugoslavia, six were from Russia, and four from Belarus.

Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gašić refuted these allegations, stating that "this is a new lie and blatant falsehood, the sole purpose of which is to cast a shadow over the acquisition of 12 new fourth-generation multirole Rafale fighter jets. The MiGs that Serbia possesses are Serbian, and we will never give them to anyone."

He added that the MiG-29s held by Belgrade have been fully modernized and will play an important role in Serbia's defense in the near future. Gašić stated that Serbia is acquiring advanced combat equipment to complement and strengthen the existing capabilities of its armed forces, not to replace them. Several commentators pointed to Russia as the source of the rumor about the transfer of Serbian MiG-29s to Ukraine, in response to Belgrade turning to the West rather than Moscow for new equipment. In 2023, Belgrade opted to purchase the Airbus C295 medium tactical transport aircraft instead of the Russian Antonov An-26 (NATO reporting name: Curl).

An OSINT investigation identified the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel "Oktagon" as the original source of the claim that a two-way aircraft exchange clause was included in the Rafale contract. The information was quickly picked up and republished by the Russian Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT) before being disseminated by Serbian and international media. Alongside Macron's enthusiastic announcement, French commentators suggested that the fighter jet deal was part of a broader strategy to "bring Serbia closer to the EU."

Serbia is officially seeking EU membership, but under Vučić's increasingly autocratic regime, it has made little progress toward the democratic reforms that are one of the main prerequisites for accession. Additionally, the sale of Rafales to Serbia, a country still considered by many as an ally of Russia, has raised some concerns, particularly about how Moscow might acquire elements of the jet's advanced technology via Belgrade. Asked about the existence of clauses restricting the use of the aircraft, an anonymous French official stated, "In any contract, there are clauses that set a framework for the use of this equipment." These comments have further fueled the rumors about the aircraft exchange.