Exclusive | Belarus already produced several launcher systems for the Oreshnik ballistic missile to expand Russia’s strike capabilities.

On March 13, 2025, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko stated that the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) has not yet been deployed in Belarus and confirmed ongoing work on related components. Speaking to reporters in the Kremlin, Lukashenko explained that while Belarus does not currently possess the missile, it has initiated manufacturing of several launchers, which are nearing completion. He specified that Belarus requires missiles supplied by Russia to complete the system.
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Lukashenko explained that while Belarus does not currently possess the missile, it has initiated manufacturing of several launchers, which are nearing completion. (Picture source: Russian MoD/Illustrative image)

Belarus is producing launchers for the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system and expects Russian missile deliveries at a later stage. During an official visit to Moscow, Lukashenko noted that the placement of the Oreshnik system in Belarus is progressing in accordance with bilateral agreements. Alexei Polishchuk, head of the second department of CIS countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, previously stated that the deployment of these missile systems in Belarus would follow the security agreements ratified by both governments.

Belarus has historically been involved in the production of transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and missile launch platforms. During the Soviet era, the Minsk Automobile Plant (MAZ) developed several TEL systems, including the MAZ-547A, which was used for the RSD-10 Pioneer (SS-20 Saber) intermediate-range ballistic missile system. This launcher provided mobility, improving deployment capabilities. In the 1980s, Belarus contributed to the MAZ-7916, which was used as the TEL for the RT-2PM Topol (SS-25 Sickle) intercontinental ballistic missile. The mobility of these systems played a role in ensuring the survivability of Soviet missile forces.

Production of missile launchers continues in Belarus through MAZ and the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT). MAZ, founded in 1944, initially focused on heavy-duty vehicles before shifting to military applications, such as the MAZ-543, introduced in 1962 for the TEMP missile launcher. In 1991, the division responsible for military transport was separated from MAZ to form MZKT, which has continued producing specialized military transporters. The MZKT-79221, developed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, serves as the chassis for the Topol-M missile system, while the MZKT-7930 "Astrolog," introduced in the early 1990s, supports systems such as the Iskander ballistic missile and the Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

Security cooperation between Belarus and Russia is formalized through several agreements. On February 26, 2025, the lower house of the Belarusian parliament ratified a draft law approving a security treaty with Russia within the framework of the Union State. Signed in Minsk on December 6, 2024, the agreement is awaiting approval from the upper house before being signed into law by Lukashenko. This treaty formalizes security cooperation and includes provisions for military base arrangements, facilitating the deployment of Russian military assets in Belarus.

According to Russian sources, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) has a maximum range of 5,500 kilometers, a speed exceeding Mach 10 (12,400 km/h), and a payload capacity of up to 1.5 tons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that no existing missile defense systems are capable of intercepting the Oreshnik, and Russian analysts claim that the Oreshnik could only be intercepted by their S-500 air defense system. Reports suggest that the missile is derived from the discontinued RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile program. Some assessments have questioned its precision in conventional strikes, indicating it may be designed for nuclear payloads.

Belarus has historically been involved in the production of several transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and missile launch platforms for Russia, including the MZKT-7930 Astrolog used by the Iskander ballistic missile system. (Picture source: Russian social media)

Discussions on Oreshnik deployment intensified after Lukashenko's request during a December 6, 2024, meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State. He cited NATO military activities in Poland and Lithuania as security concerns, stating that the missile system would serve as a deterrent. Putin responded that deployment could occur in the latter half of 2025, depending on production progress. He stated that while the missiles would be part of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, Belarusian authorities would have a role in determining targeting parameters.

The Oreshnik missile system was first used in combat on November 21, 2024, in a strike against a defense facility in Dnipro, Ukraine. The Russian government stated that the strike was a response to Ukraine’s authorization of long-range attacks inside Russian territory. Western defense officials, including from Estonia and the United Kingdom, assessed the missile launch as a strategic signal rather than solely a tactical operation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested the timing of the strike was politically motivated, potentially aimed at influencing U.S. policy under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Belarusian officials state that security cooperation with Russia does not pose a threat to third countries. Speaking at the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on February 26, 2025, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov stated that the presence of Russian nuclear and conventional missile systems in Belarus was a defensive measure. He referenced Belarus’s decision in the 1990s to relinquish its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Memorandum and stated that Western security assurances had not been upheld. Ryzhenkov said the deployment of Oreshnik missiles would serve as a deterrent against NATO military activity in the region.

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin has stated that the deployment of the Oreshnik missile system and tactical nuclear weapons increases Belarus’s defense capabilities. While he did not specify a deployment timeline, he confirmed that work is ongoing. Russian officials have described the Oreshnik as a hypersonic system designed to penetrate advanced defenses. According to Russian sources, multiple Oreshnik missiles launched in coordination could generate destructive force comparable to nuclear weapons, without the radiation effects of traditional nuclear warheads.

The possible deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus has drawn international attention. Western analysts view it as part of Russia’s broader strategy concerning NATO and Ukraine. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that while Russia has started producing the missile, its full capabilities remain unverified. Belarusian authorities state that deployment decisions align with national security interests and the Union State agreement with Russia. As the treaty awaits final approval, discussions on Oreshnik deployment are expected to continue throughout 2025.