Breaking News: Russia starts full production of Oreshnik ballistic missiles to threaten Europe's key military bases.

On June 23, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the initiation of serial production of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) during a televised address to graduates of Russian military academies. This was the first official mention of the system since February 2025, when Putin had described its thermal resistance capabilities during the Future Technologies Forum. Prior references included a December 2024 statement at the EAEU summit, in which he emphasized the potential use of Oreshnik if required and described it as suitable for specific tasks.
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The Oreshnik missile’s first acknowledged operational use occurred on November 21, 2024, when it was launched in non-nuclear configuration against the Yuzhmash defense-industrial facility in Dnipro, Ukraine. This strike was officially framed as a response to Ukraine's use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russian targets, including ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later stated that the launch was a demonstration of capabilities and a warning, and that the U.S. was notified 30 minutes in advance, despite no formal requirement to do so.

The Oreshnik missile is assessed to be derived from the RS-26 Rubezh, a solid-fueled, road-mobile missile previously excluded from Russia’s state armament program due to funding constraints in favor of other platforms such as Avangard. The missile is believed to operate at speeds exceeding Mach 10 and carry a range of up to 5,000 kilometers, placing it within the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) category. It is reportedly equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), potentially each carrying submunitions, and is capable of being launched from a multi-axle high-mobility vehicle. Analysts from both Russian and Western institutions have highlighted its deployment flexibility due to mobility and the brief duration of its active flight phase, which reduces exposure to missile defense interception. According to expert Igor Korotchenko, these features allow Oreshnik to be deployed in varied locations while minimizing detection from technical or satellite reconnaissance. As of mid-2025, discussions include the possibility of stationing the system in Belarus, with agreements reportedly in place to facilitate deployment during the second half of the year.

Damage assessments of the November 2024 Dnipro strike suggest limited structural impact on Yuzhmash or the surrounding area, with satellite imagery showing minor roof damage and no large-scale destruction. Reports from CNN identified missile components at the strike site, some bearing serial numbers linked to the R-30 Bulava ICBM program. U.S. and Ukrainian sources indicated that the missile may have carried inert or non-explosive warheads. A CSIS director stated that even inert hypersonic warheads could cause physical damage due to their kinetic energy, while other experts, including Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, assessed that the strike was likely more political than tactical. The Economist and various defense analysts interpreted the missile’s use as part of a broader intimidation campaign aimed at NATO member states and the incoming U.S. administration. Russian outlets published graphics indicating flight times from Russia to various European capitals, reinforcing the perception of the system’s strategic signaling function.

Russian officials have linked the development of Oreshnik to the broader breakdown of arms control agreements. The U.S. withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, citing Russian violations related to the 9M729 missile, while Russia suspended its participation in the New START Treaty in 2023, raising objections over NATO nuclear arsenals not covered by the bilateral framework. Moscow had declared a unilateral moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles, but in December 2024, Putin stated that the moratorium would end if the U.S. deployed similar systems. By early June 2025, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov indicated that Russia’s restraint had not been reciprocated and that the moratorium was reaching its conclusion. Peskov added that Russia and the United States were not currently engaged in negotiations over arms control, including on strategic offensive weapons or missile defense. Russian representatives have consistently blamed the United States for the collapse of previous treaties and rejected initiating any new frameworks without significant changes in Western policy positions.

Within Russia, the missile has been framed as a response to growing geopolitical tensions and as part of broader military development. Putin stated during his June 2025 address that the narrative of a “Russian threat” was created by NATO countries to justify military spending and political cohesion. He criticized NATO for provoking an arms race and global militarization, while reaffirming Russia’s commitment to enhancing its military capabilities. These include establishing unmanned systems forces, upgrading the nuclear triad, and increasing investments in strategic missile forces, naval forces, and airborne elements. Specifically, Putin stated that modern Yars systems would be delivered to the Strategic Missile Forces and that the air leg of the nuclear triad would be augmented by Tu-160M bombers during 2025. He also noted plans for new surface ships and submarines equipped with precision strike weapons and highlighted the continued coordination between law enforcement, intelligence services, and the military as essential to national security.

Expert commentary within Russia suggests that Oreshnik brigades could eventually be deployed to every combined arms or tank army within the Russian Armed Forces. Analyst Mikhail Khodarenok argued that the missile would likely be fielded at both the operational and strategic command levels and that the overall process of equipping units would take several years. He also emphasized that the system could significantly expand the operational reach of the Russian military in any regional theater, including potential deployments to Russia’s Far East in response to developments in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Korotchenko, Russian defense industry coordination would ensure the timely fulfillment of state defense orders for Oreshnik deliveries, both in strategic forces and in potential Belarus-based contingents. These developments align with prior statements from the Russian Defense Ministry, which in November 2024 declared its intention to adopt the missile into service and continue testing under combat conditions.

International reactions to the missile’s use and production have varied. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the November 2024 strike as a major escalation and called for stronger international condemnation. The German chancellor and UN representatives also expressed concern, characterizing the use of such a system as a destabilizing development. On November 26, 2024, the NATO–Ukraine Council issued a statement condemning the missile strike as another attempt by Russia to intimidate Ukraine’s civilian population and undermine allied support. It concluded that the use of experimental systems would not change the course of the conflict or deter NATO from assisting Ukraine. Some experts have raised concerns that the use of conventionally armed long-range ballistic missiles could trigger misinterpretations, particularly if adversaries assume they are nuclear-tipped. The potential for confusion is considered significant in the context of strategic stability, especially given the missile’s resemblance to previously banned INF systems and its origins in a platform that had been excluded from deployment under earlier arms control commitments.