Missile threats against the U.S. to quintuple by 2035 largely driven by China military buildup.

The U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warns that adversary missile arsenals, driven by rapid expansion in China’s strategic forces, are projected to grow from more than 3,000 today to over 16,000 by 2035, sharply increasing the scale of threats to U.S. territory.

This surge includes intercontinental ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, and cruise missiles, significantly enhancing adversaries’ long-range precision strike capability and complicating U.S. missile defense operations. Missile systems such as China’s DF-41 and DF-17, Russia’s Sarmat and Avangard, and North Korea’s Hwasong-18, directly impact U.S. strategic deterrence and homeland security by increasing interception complexity, reducing warning times, and stressing layered missile defense architectures across multiple domains.
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Despite the availability of lower-cost systems, Beijing continues to invest in high-end missiles capable of long-range precision strikes, which are now expected to be paired with cheaper, expendable systems to stress U.S. missile defenses. (Picture source: Chinese MoD)

The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S Intelligence Community, released in March 2026, indicates that missile systems capable of striking U.S. territory will increase from more than 3,000 today to over 16,000 by 2035, representing a fivefold increase driven by sustained production and investment by countries such as China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan. The current inventory already includes intercontinental ballistic missiles such as North Korea’s Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18, Russian RS-28 Sarmat, and Chinese DF-41s, all designed with ranges between 12,000 and 18,000 km. These ICBMs are supported by shorter-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and dual-capable systems that can carry nuclear or conventional warheads.

According to the report, the projected increase reflects both numerical expansion and the addition of new operational concepts, including hypersonic glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombardment trajectories. Adversaries are also increasing launcher survivability through mobile platforms, hardened silos, and submarine-based systems. The overall trajectory indicates a transition toward larger, more diverse, and more survivable missile forces. This shift directly increases the number of critical points that must be defended by the United States. China is expanding its missile forces through the deployment of DF-41 ICBMs, DF-31AG road-mobile systems, and DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicles, alongside the construction of new missile silo fields estimated in the hundreds.

These systems are designed to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, increasing the number of warheads per missile and complicating interception. Russia maintains the largest and most diverse missile arsenal, including RS-24 Yars, Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, and Kalibr cruise missiles, supported by a triad of land, sea, and air delivery systems. North Korea has tested the Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18, both capable of reaching the continental United States, with the latter using solid-fuel propulsion to reduce launch preparation time. Iran’s missile program includes systems such as the Shahab-3, Khorramshahr, and space-launch vehicles like the Simorgh, which could provide a basis for longer-range development.

Pakistan continues to advance systems such as the Shaheen-III, with a range of 2,750 km, and is pursuing longer-range capabilities. Therefore, the number of deployed and deployable missile systems is increasing across all categories. U.S. adversaries are also structuring missile forces to operate in conjunction with large volumes of lower-cost strike systems, including one-way attack UAVs and loitering munitions that replicate missile-like attack profiles. Iran’s creation of systems such as the Shahed-136 demonstrates the operational effectiveness of combining inexpensive, high-volume systems with ballistic and cruise missiles to saturate defenses. Russia has employed similar approaches in Ukraine, integrating Kalibr cruise missiles with drone swarms to overwhelm air defense networks.

China is developing comparable concepts within its anti-access and area denial strategy, integrating missiles with unmanned systems and electronic warfare. This layered approach increases the number of simultaneous inbound threats and complicates tracking and engagement. Missile defense systems must discriminate between decoys, drones, and actual warheads under time constraints. The cost imbalance between interceptors and incoming systems is also becoming a critical factor in this strategy, as the objective is to degrade interception efficiency through volume and complexity. Missile development is directly linked to nuclear force modernization and broader weapon of mass destruction (WMD) strategies, with China, Russia, and North Korea expanding warhead inventories and delivery options.

China’s nuclear warhead stockpile is assessed in the low 600s, with projections exceeding 1,000 by 2030, and the deployment of MIRV-capable systems, such as the DF-41, enables a single Chinese missile to carry multiple warheads. Russia maintains the largest and most diverse missile arsenal, with systems such as Sarmat and Avangard, designed to evade missile defenses through speed and maneuverability. North Korea is producing fissile material and expanding its warhead inventory while improving delivery accuracy and survivability. Iran’s missile developments, combined with prior nuclear activities and potential chemical and biological research, contribute to a multi-domain threat profile.

India and Pakistan are both enhancing nuclear-capable delivery systems, adding to regional instability with potential global implications. These new factors reduce warning times and increase the range of possible strike scenarios for any U.S. military planning. Technological enablers are improving missile performance, including advances in satellite navigation, counterspace systems, artificial intelligence, and guidance technologies. China and Russia are developing anti-satellite capabilities, including co-orbital systems and potential nuclear payloads in space, which could disrupt early warning and communication networks. Satellite constellations are being integrated into targeting and command systems, improving accuracy to near 100 meters CEP for systems like the DF-41.

Artificial intelligence is being applied to optimize targeting, trajectory planning, and decision cycles, reducing response times. Hypersonic systems such as Russia’s Avangard and China’s DF-17 are capable of maneuvering at speeds exceeding Mach 5, complicating interception by existing U.S. missile defense systems. Quantum computing research may eventually affect encryption and secure communications, though operational impacts remain uncertain. Advanced semiconductor production supports these technologies, concentrating critical capabilities in a limited number of countries. The global security environment reinforces missile proliferation, with 61 active conflicts recorded in 2024, indicating sustained instability and demand for long-range strike capabilities.

States are increasingly using missiles for deterrence, coercion, and operational strikes without deploying large ground forces. Iran, Russia, and North Korea have demonstrated their use of missiles and drones, while China is expanding its capabilities in the context of potential contingencies involving Taiwan and the Western Pacific. The use of proxy forces and indirect methods further integrates missile capabilities into broader military strategies. Cyber operations and electronic warfare are used to support missile campaigns by degrading adversary defenses and communications. This environment increases the likelihood of rapid escalation and miscalculation. Missile forces are central to both conventional and nuclear deterrence strategies.

The projected fivefold increase to over 16,000 missiles by 2035 will require significant adjustments in U.S. homeland defense, including scaling sensor networks, interceptor inventories, and command and control systems to address both high-end and high-volume threats. Adversaries are expected to continue adapting their missile programs in response to U.S. defensive measures, including the development of countermeasures such as decoys, maneuverable reentry vehicles, and hypersonic trajectories. The expansion of missile inventories increases the number of potential launch points and reduces the predictability of attack vectors.

Missile defense systems must address simultaneous threats across multiple domains, including ballistic, cruise, and unmanned systems. The interaction between offensive missile growth and defensive adaptation will shape deterrence stability. Intelligence collection will remain critical for tracking deployment patterns and technological developments. The scale and pace of missile proliferation indicate a sustained structural shift in the threat environment rather than a temporary increase.

Written by Jérôme Brahy

Jérôme Brahy is a defense analyst and documentalist at Army Recognition. He specializes in naval modernization, aviation, drones, armored vehicles, and artillery, with a focus on strategic developments in the United States, China, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye, and Belgium. His analyses go beyond the facts, providing context, identifying key actors, and explaining why defense news matters on a global scale.