China Conducts First Public Test of DF-41 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile in Pacific Ocean.

On Wednesday, September 25, China publicly acknowledged the successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, an unprecedented event that raises international concerns. The missile, carrying a dummy warhead and likely a DF-41, was launched by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force at 8:44 a.m. Beijing time. The Chinese Ministry of Defense emphasized that this test was part of routine annual exercises and was not directed against any particular country.

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DF-41 ICBM TELs on parade, 2019 (Picture source: PLA)

The DF-41 (Dong Feng-41) is a Chinese ICBM known for its maximum range, estimated between 12,000 and 15,000 kilometers, making it China's longest-range missile. It is designed for mobile deployment on roads, railways, or from silos, offering significant flexibility. Powered by a three-stage solid-fuel engine, the missile can carry up to 10 independently targetable nuclear warheads (MIRVs), allowing it to strike multiple targets simultaneously. It uses an inertial guidance system with stellar or satellite updates and has an estimated circular error probable (CEP) of about 100 meters.

Developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), the DF-41 began testing in 2012, demonstrating its ability to carry MIRVs. It entered limited production in 2019, and 16 launchers were unveiled during China's 70th-anniversary parade. This missile is part of China's ongoing modernization of its nuclear deterrent capabilities, aiming to counter advancements in missile defense systems and maintain a credible retaliatory strike capacity.

Analysts point out that China usually conducts such tests within its own airspace, making this event particularly noteworthy. Ankit Panda, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented that this test could reflect China's nuclear modernization efforts, especially in response to improvements in U.S. missile defenses and enhanced surveillance systems.

According to the Ministry of Defense's statement, the missile "landed in predetermined maritime areas," confirming that the test had achieved its objectives. The ministry also indicated that the concerned countries had been notified in advance. This exercise aimed to test the weapon's performance as well as the training level of the troops involved. The last time China launched a full-range ICBM was during the DF-5 missile launch in May 1980.

In May 2023, a leak of U.S. intelligence revealed that China had successfully tested a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), designated as the DF-27. This missile, according to a classified U.S. intelligence report published in 2023, was reportedly tested on February 25 and traveled 2,100 kilometers in 12 minutes. Although the U.S. Department of Defense has not confirmed the authenticity of this report, it suggests that the DF-27 could have a range between 5,000 and 8,000 kilometers, capable of reaching targets as distant as Guam, Alaska, or parts of Australia.

China conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), likely the DF-41, capable of traveling approximately 12,000 kilometers (Picture source: Duan Dang)

This test illustrates China's strategic military modernization, which includes the expansion of its nuclear arsenal. In 2023, the Pentagon reported that China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, a number expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, China is constructing hundreds of silos for ground-based ICBMs. This increase in Chinese nuclear capabilities contrasts with the arsenals of the United States and Russia, each of which has over 1,700 deployed warheads.

Despite this buildup, China has reaffirmed its commitment to a "no first use" policy regarding nuclear weapons, with its arsenal under the exclusive control of the Central Military Commission led by President Xi Jinping. However, tensions remain high, particularly with Taiwan, which has reported an increase in Chinese military activities around the island. Taiwan's Ministry of Defense confirmed detecting 23 Chinese military aircraft operating near its territory on the same day as the missile test.

This test takes place in the context of intensified military activities in the Asia-Pacific region, where China and other regional actors like North Korea continue their missile tests. In September, North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan, further heightening regional tensions.

The People's Republic of China is building and deploying a sophisticated and modern missile arsenal, although this process remains shrouded in mystery due to Beijing's intentional ambiguity and refusal to adhere to arms control or transparency agreements. Chinese missiles play a central role in emerging anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) doctrines, combining ballistic and cruise missiles launched from air, land, and sea to target U.S. and allied military assets in the Asia-Pacific region. China is also developing several advanced capabilities, such as maneuverable anti-ship ballistic missiles, multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles.

These combined trends threaten the survival of key elements of U.S. power projection, such as aircraft carriers and forward air bases. Additionally, China possesses a relatively small but developing contingent of nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking U.S. territory, as well as a growing fleet of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.