Situation brief | Will Germany really stopping support for Ukraine ?.

The German government will cease all new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition's spending reduction plan, reported on Saturday by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). The moratorium on new aid is already in effect and will impact new funding requests, not previously approved aid, according to the FAZ report, which cites non-public documents and emails as well as discussions with people close to the matter.
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A Ukrainian tank crew stand by the Leopard 1A5 main battle tank they are being trained to operate and maintain by German and Danish military personnel at a military training ground of the Bundeswehr on May 5, 2023(Picture source: Sean Gallup)

In a letter sent to the German Ministry of Defense on August 5th, Finance Minister Christian Lindner stated that future funding would no longer come from the German federal budget but from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper.

In June, Germany and other G7 countries reached a preliminary agreement to use the value of some $300 billion in sovereign Russian assets locked in Western financial institutions to secure a $50 billion loan for Ukraine. However, governments must still agree on the details of the scheme and technical discussions may take months.

Berlin, the main European provider of military aid to Kiev, had already signaled a shift in Ukraine last month when the ruling coalition comprised of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals adopted a preliminary budget plan for 2025. The reviewed compromise outlines plans to halve future aid to Ukraine, to 4 billion euros, to meet other spending priorities.
Behind the United States, Germany is the second-largest contributor as Berlin's aid amounts to 8 billion euros in 2024. In total, since the beginning of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, more than 33.9 billion euros have been spent as part of bilateral support measures for Kyiv. This includes the winter aid program, support for people who have fled Ukraine, investigations into war crimes, humanitarian aid, and mine clearance.

Speaking after the Cabinet approved the budget plan in mid-July, Lindner said Ukraine should rely more on funds "from European sources" as well as frozen Russian assets. However, it remains unclear if, and when, this money will be released. Additionally, the Twitter account @ProjetFOX reports comments from Sebastian Fischer, Spokesperson of the German Federal Foreign Office, stating that the claims by the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that Germany would stop supporting Ukraine are false.

In conclusion, Germany will not immediately stop aid to Ukraine, as the 2025 budget includes 4 billion euros from German funds. However, future aid from Europe's largest supplier of military equipment will be financed differently, not from German funds but from those confiscated from Russian oligarchs in Europe. Berlin "assumes that these funds will be usable from 2025," indicated a parliamentary source contacted by AFP.