Russia launches local mass production of Iranian Shahed loitering munitions.

On March 5, 2024, a new video shared on Russian military channels on Telegram (@СОЛОВЬЁВ) claims to showcase the mass production of Shahed attack drones, designed by Iran, inside Russia. While the authenticity of the video is yet to be confirmed, it is not necessarily indicative of an increase in drone attacks. Indeed, it may be more of a communication operation than a novelty, given Russia's existing commitment to develop its own drone production industry.
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Capture of the video showing the possible production of Shahed-136 drones in Russia (Picture source: Telegram Channel @СОЛОВЬЁВ )

The Shahed drones have a wingspan of 2.5 meters and are known as "mopeds" due to the sound of the engine, which approaches speeds of about 160 km/h. The drone carries an explosive payload of approximately 45 kg, and while typical targets include electrical substations and transformers, they can cause devastating damage to apartment buildings.

More than 4,400 Shahed attacks have been documented in the war in Ukraine so far, averaging more than 240 per month. This makes them far more common than any Russian long-range weapon. Their relatively low cost and ease of production compared to cruise and ballistic missiles have made Shaheds now the cornerstone of Russia's strategic campaign.

Shahed attacks began in September 2022, with the drones initially being imported directly from Iran, mostly Shahed-131/136. Later, Russia began assembling Shaheds, known as Geran ("Germanium"), in its own facilities, with plans to produce them entirely locally. Over the past 18 months, captured Shaheds have been found with increasing amounts of Russian and foreign components and new bodies apparently built in Russia.

Last August, intelligence sources identified a giant production site dedicated to Shahed production. The facility, located in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, central Russia, ultimately aims to produce more than 1,600 Shaheds per month. It's possible that this video was filmed at this site. It shows rows of Shahed bodies, both the standard white version and the new stealthier black version. About 100 Shahed bodies are visible, and in one still image, workers appear to be installing engines and other components.

However, it should be noted that while Russia may produce hundreds of carbon fiber drone bodies, this does not necessarily mean they can manufacture finished drones. Additionally, Russian drone factories rely on foreign-produced components, despite international sanctions intended to ban their export, which inevitably limits their construction.

Moreover, the number of Shaheds shot down by Ukrainian forces seems to be decreasing in recent months, dropping from a peak of 508 in December to 294 in January and then to 284 in February. Nevertheless, Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia can produce about 300 to 350 Shaheds per month.

Defense News March 2024