Black Sea Power Struggle: Why Neither Russia Nor Ukraine Holds Naval Supremacy.

According to information published Eesti Rahvusringhääling on January 6, 2025, Commodore Ivo Värk, Navy Commander of Estonia, highlighted that neither Russia nor Ukraine currently possesses uncontested control over the maritime zone, in a detailed analysis of the ongoing naval standoff in the Black Sea. Both nations remain confined in their operations, with their actions heavily influenced by coastal defenses and the complex nature of modern naval warfare.
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A contested battleground: Neither Russia nor Ukraine holds dominance in the Black Sea, as evolving naval tactics and modern technologies like drones shape the conflict. (Picture source: Ukrainian MoD)

The Black Sea has become a focal point of constrained naval strategies, with both sides exercising caution in their movements. Naval operations are primarily concentrated near coastal areas, where air defense systems, naval mines, and shore-based weaponry provide a safety buffer. Ships from both sides are deployed sparingly and for specific missions, avoiding excessive risks in an environment where control can shift rapidly.

Strategic assets like gas drilling platforms play a significant role in the conflict, serving as intelligence hubs for both nations. However, these installations remain contested and frequently change hands.

On December 31, Ukraine achieved a significant milestone by destroying a Russian helicopter using a naval drone, marking the first such success in the Black Sea. This highlights Ukraine’s innovative use of surface-based attack drones, which have become a key tool in their naval arsenal. Despite their potential, these drones face limitations in cost, effectiveness, and deployment conditions.

The Magura naval drone, estimated at €400,000 per unit, represents a costly investment for Ukraine, which has reported instances where multiple drones failed to reach their targets due to evolving Russian countermeasures. Out of 20 drones launched, none may successfully complete their mission, underscoring the challenges of operating in a contested marine environment.

The use of naval drones has sparked interest, but their long-term impact remains a subject of debate. While they provide enhanced situational awareness and intelligence capabilities, drones are unlikely to replace traditional naval platforms such as submarines, surface ships, and missile systems. Instead, they are emerging as complementary tools within the broader framework of modern naval operations.

The naval dynamics in the Black Sea demonstrate the complexities of modern maritime conflict. While traditional naval platforms remain indispensable, emerging technologies like drones are reshaping operational strategies. The ongoing contest underscores the adaptability of both sides as they navigate a high-stakes maritime environment.