2025 Defense Budget: Poland's 32 Billion USD Plan to Face Eastern Challenges.

The Polish government recently unveiled its draft budget for 2025, marking a new phase in its national defense policy. This budget, dated September 30, 2024, allocates a record sum of 32 billion USD for military expenditures, representing about 3.1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This significant increase, compared to the 30 billion USD initially planned for 2024, reflects Warsaw’s determination to modernize its armed forces in response to growing threats from Russia and Belarus, while consolidating its position within the European Union and NATO.

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Polish F-16s and allied F-35s were captured during an A2A session while patrolling the airspace over Poland. (Picture source: Polish MoD)

Strategic acquisitions to modernize the Polish army

In recent years, Poland has intensified its efforts to modernize its military arsenal by signing contracts for the acquisition of advanced equipment with several allied countries. According to data from the SIPRI arms transfers database, Poland has concluded agreements for the purchase of advanced weapon systems, reflecting its strategy to strengthen its defensive capabilities.

Poland has bolstered its military capabilities through several recent strategic acquisitions, including key equipment from its international partners. M1A1FEP Abrams tanks from the United States, intended to equip the 1st Armored Brigade of Warsaw, will significantly enhance the ground firepower of the Polish forces.

Similarly, Patriot air defense systems, also acquired from the United States, will increase the country’s ability to defend against aerial and ballistic threats. The acquisition of FA-50 fighter jets, manufactured in South Korea, with an initial delivery of 12 aircraft in 2023, will strengthen Poland’s tactical aviation, facilitating better integration with allied forces. Additionally, the K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers, also from South Korea, will provide long-range artillery capability.

Poland has also signed contracts for K2 tanks and K9 self-propelled howitzers from South Korea, which are expected to significantly bolster the army’s artillery and maneuverability capabilities. Furthermore, Javelin and Hellfire-2 anti-tank missiles from the United States enhance the ability of ground forces to counter enemy armored vehicles. The NSM anti-ship missile systems purchased from Norway will strengthen coastal defense along the Baltic Sea. Finally, KTO Rosomak armored vehicles, produced locally under Finnish license, underscore the importance of industrial cooperation and national production capacities.

These acquisitions are part of strategic partnerships with countries such as the United States, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, demonstrating Poland’s intention to diversify its equipment sources while strengthening ties with its allies.

The Homar-K rocket launcher combines versatility with precision, offering a range of up to approximately 300 km and advanced technology that minimizes the risk of accidental damage (Picture source: Polish MoD)

Joint projects and industrial development

Poland is not limited to purchasing foreign equipment but also invests in developing its defense industry through joint projects aimed at enhancing national capabilities and promoting technology transfer. The Wisła program, in cooperation with the United States, is a key example, aimed at developing an integrated missile defense system, including components of the Patriot system. In parallel, the Narew program, designed to create a short-range air defense system, involves collaboration with the United Kingdom for the acquisition of CAMM-MR missiles, while allowing Polish industry to actively participate in production.

The modernization of Mi-24 attack helicopters is also underway, with discussions around the acquisition of new attack helicopters, such as the AH-64 Apache. Moreover, Poland is participating in the European tactical drone program, a project aimed at enhancing its autonomy in reconnaissance and surveillance. These initiatives demonstrate Poland’s commitment to building a robust national defense industry while cooperating with international partners.

A response to threats from the East

The increase in Poland's defense budget is largely motivated by growing geopolitical tensions with Russia and Belarus. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the conflicts in Ukraine, and Russian military activities in the Kaliningrad region have raised concerns about the security of Eastern Europe. Poland, which shares a border with Belarus and is close to Russia's Kaliningrad enclave, is directly affected by these developments. Strengthening its military capabilities is seen as essential to deterring potential aggression and ensuring national security.

The 1st Masurian Artillery Brigade is preparing for fire support operations in the Dragon 24 exercise, with K9 Thunder howitzer crews intensively training to ensure full readiness for firing (Picture source: Polish MoD)

Poland’s position within the EU and NATO

As an active member of the European Union and NATO, Poland plays a key role in regional security. Its commitment to allocating more than 2% of its GDP to defense exceeds NATO expectations, and the new budget of 3.1% of GDP is one of the highest among member countries. This substantial investment strengthens Poland's credibility as a reliable ally, capable of significantly contributing to NATO operations and collective security missions. The modernization of its armed forces enhances interoperability with other Alliance militaries, facilitating joint exercises and rapid deployments in times of crisis.

However, this ambition comes with challenges. The financing of these expenditures partly relies on the Armed Forces Support Fund, which accumulates a growing debt. Projections suggest that the Fund’s debt could reach 282.4 billion PLN by 2028, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of this strategy. Moreover, the use of complex financial mechanisms, such as loans and bond issuances, could expose Poland to economic risks, especially if the Fund faces difficulties in raising the necessary funds.

Poland’s 2025 defense budget reflects a clear determination to strengthen national security in response to real and perceived threats from the East. Massive investments in military modernization, the acquisition of advanced equipment, and joint projects with allies illustrate the country’s intent to position itself as a key player in European security. However, this strategy requires prudent financial management to avoid long-term economic imbalances. Poland will need to balance its military ambitions with a sustainable financial approach while continuing to play an active role within the European Union and NATO to ensure regional stability and security.