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Analysis: Is Future Combat Air System Program Still Key to European Air Superiority?.
Europe seeks to secure its strategic autonomy amidst growing global military competition. In this context, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) stands out as one of the most ambitious initiatives to maintain air superiority across the continent. A joint project by France, Germany, and Spain, the FCAS aims to replace the Rafale and Eurofighter fleets by 2040. Yet, with mounting delays and complex technological hurdles, a key question emerges: is the FCAS still the future of European air superiority?
Since its launch in 2017, the FCAS has progressed through Phase 1B concept studies, with a demonstrator flight expected by 2028 (Picture source: Airbus)
This large-scale program relies on an innovative "system of systems" approach. The FCAS is built around three main components: a new-generation fighter (Next-Generation Fighter, NGF), autonomous drones known as Remote Carriers (RC), and an Air Combat Cloud that facilitates real-time connectivity and information sharing among platforms. The Air Combat Cloud will function as a military Internet of Things, enabling seamless collaboration among fighter jets, drones, satellites, and other military assets. Central to this concept are artificial intelligence (AI) and big data processing, aimed at transforming future military operations.
Since its official launch in 2017, the FCAS has seen notable progress. Phase 1B, focused on concept studies, established the groundwork for a future demonstrator, with a maiden flight expected around 2028. Key industrial stakeholders—Dassault Aviation, Airbus Defence & Space, and Indra—share responsibilities based on their expertise. Dassault leads the NGF development, Airbus is working on the Air Combat Cloud, and Indra oversees systems integration in Spain. Additional partners such as Thales and Safran are contributing technologies related to sensors, communication systems, and propulsion.
Despite these achievements, the program has encountered significant obstacles. Political and industrial disagreements among the participating nations have caused repeated delays. Disputes over task allocation and intellectual property rights, particularly between Dassault and Airbus, have created friction, slowing progress. Spain's inclusion, while essential to strengthening the program, has added complexity in coordination efforts.
Externally, the FCAS faces geopolitical and technological challenges. The United States is advancing its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, and the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan are collaborating on the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP). Europe must demonstrate its capacity to compete technologically and operationally. Internal competition further complicates matters, as parallel European projects risk diluting efforts and undermining the EU’s goal of strategic autonomy.
The FCAS’s ambitions, however, extend beyond technological advancements. Strategically, it addresses a critical need to preserve European defense sovereignty. By reducing reliance on foreign technologies, the FCAS bolsters the resilience of European armed forces against emerging threats, including cyberattacks and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies. The program also supports Europe’s defense industry, fostering innovation, creating highly skilled jobs, and strengthening the EU’s technological base.
Nevertheless, these objectives face significant challenges. Beyond delays and disputes, the FCAS must overcome financial hurdles. With an estimated budget exceeding €100 billion, the three partner nations must commit to long-term funding amidst growing economic pressures. The program’s ambitious technological scope also introduces risks, particularly in the development of the Air Combat Cloud, which requires significant advancements in cybersecurity and data management.
The FCAS’s success hinges on several factors. First, political will among partners must translate into stronger cooperation and effective mechanisms to resolve internal conflicts. Second, the program must demonstrate its ability to deliver tangible results within reasonable timeframes. Third, Europe must prevent unnecessary duplication by aligning the FCAS with initiatives like the GCAP.
Ultimately, the FCAS remains a unique opportunity for Europe to regain a leadership position in a strategic domain. It represents more than just the development of a fighter aircraft—it lays the foundation for an interconnected, resilient defense ecosystem. However, as geopolitical tensions and the technological race intensify, time is not on the program's side. Failure to overcome disputes and meet commitments could turn the FCAS into a symbol of the limits of European cooperation rather than a testament to its potential.