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Russia Launches Record 188 Shahed Drones in Saturation Attack on Ukraine.
On the night of November 26, 2024, Russia carried out its largest drone attack since the start of its offensive in Ukraine, deploying 188 Shahed drones alongside four Iskander-M ballistic missiles. This unprecedented assault represents a significant escalation in Russian aerial operations, highlighting a military strategy aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and gradually depleting adversary resources.
The November 26 assault showcases a Russian military approach focused on airspace saturation (Picture source: Ukrainian MoD)
At the center of this operation were the Shahed-136 drones, initially designed in Iran and produced domestically in Russia under the designation Geran-2. These loitering munitions, with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, carry moderate explosive payloads sufficient to damage critical infrastructure. Operating at low altitudes and moderate speeds, they exploit weaknesses in conventional radar systems. With a production cost estimated at approximately $20,000, these drones represent a cost-effective and efficient means of conducting repeated, large-scale strikes.
Complementing the drones, Russia employed Iskander-M ballistic missiles capable of striking targets over 500 kilometers away with high precision. These hypersonic missiles, flying at high altitudes, present a significant challenge to modern air defense systems. Unlike drones, Iskander-M missiles are typically reserved for strategic strikes on fortified positions or vital infrastructure.
This combination of drones and missiles in a single operation reflects sophisticated tactical planning, aiming to overwhelm enemy defenses while maximizing inflicted damage.
The November 26 assault showcases a Russian military approach focused on airspace saturation. The simultaneous deployment of 188 drones creates a mass effect designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. Each interception demands expensive and limited resources, such as missiles from NASAMS or Patriot systems. By conducting such large-scale operations, Russia aims to deplete Ukraine's stockpile of surface-to-air missiles, reducing its ability to counter more advanced threats, such as ballistic missiles.
Additionally, the domestic production of Shahed drones allows Russia to sustain a high tempo of low-cost attacks. Estimates suggest that Moscow can produce over 1,000 units per month, ensuring a steady supply for continuous offensives.
The primary targets of these strikes—Ukrainian energy infrastructure—play a central role in this strategy. Striking key facilities as winter approaches aims to disrupt Ukraine’s logistical and operational capabilities. However, while the attacks may cause significant damage, their immediate impact on military outcomes remains uncertain.
The attack highlights the limitations of Ukraine’s air defense systems in countering massive and diverse threats. During this operation, only 76 of the 188 loitering munitions were intercepted, while a portion of the drones was diverted using electronic warfare measures. These figures reveal the partial effectiveness of Ukraine's defenses, which remain insufficient to neutralize the entirety of the threat.
Modern systems such as NASAMS, IRIS-T, and Patriot are effective against certain types of threats but are not optimized for handling saturation attacks involving hundreds of simultaneous targets. Furthermore, the limited geographical deployment of these systems leaves some areas exposed, particularly in regions further from the front lines.
Ballistic missiles, such as the Iskander-M, present an even more complex challenge. Their hypersonic speeds and near-invulnerable trajectories make interception exceedingly difficult. None of the four missiles launched during this attack were intercepted, underscoring the need for Ukraine to acquire specialized systems like THAAD or Aegis to counter such threats effectively.
Despite these challenges, Ukrainian forces are developing innovative responses to mitigate the impact of drone attacks. One emerging tactic involves using electronic warfare systems to disrupt the GPS signals of Shahed drones, causing them to deviate from their intended paths and, in some cases, return to Russian or Belarusian territory. While effective in certain instances, this approach is not a comprehensive solution and requires further resources to expand its application.
In parallel, Ukraine is enhancing its kinetic capabilities, deploying anti-aircraft artillery systems and using MiG-29 fighters equipped with air-to-air missiles. However, these assets remain limited in both number and effectiveness against large-scale attacks.
The record deployment of Shahed drones and Iskander-M missiles marks a significant evolution in Russian military doctrine. By combining low-cost weapons with advanced systems in coordinated attacks, Russia exploits weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses while preserving its strategic assets for future operations. This approach allows Moscow to maintain constant pressure on Ukraine, both militarily and operationally.
However, this strategy relies on Russia’s ability to sustain high production rates for drones and missiles. Should the Russian defense industry meet its targets, the frequency and intensity of these attacks could increase further, posing additional challenges for Kyiv and its allies.
Ukraine's priorities include acquiring additional air defense systems and developing asymmetric solutions to counter drones and missiles. Coordinating with Western partners will be crucial in addressing existing gaps, particularly in countering ballistic missile threats.
This attack also underscores the growing importance of electronic warfare and non-kinetic neutralization technologies in modern conflicts. As both sides continue to refine their capabilities, the war in Ukraine enters a new phase where technological superiority may prove decisive.