Analysis : Total war in coming in south Lebanon golan heights are meeting point of Tsahal forces.

After eight months of sporadic exchanges of fire, the risk of a large-scale conflict between the State of Israel and Hezbollah has never been higher. The fear of total war shakes Lebanon.
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Video Captures of vehicles regrouped near golan heights and BlueLine border. Video were checked with OSINT for Date and place. (Picture source: OSINT )

The signs are not good. Israeli threats against Hezbollah, and indeed all of Lebanon, are escalating. Some embassies and diplomatic missions are advising their nationals to leave Lebanon, while others are considering evacuation measures in the event of an escalation of the conflict or the outbreak of a major war. In recent days, the threat of a flare-up on the southern front has returned to red amidst ongoing (political and diplomatic) efforts and maximum pressure being applied to avoid such a scenario.

However, obstacles seem to be obstructing this process, particularly since the visit of the American envoy, Amos Hochstein, to Jerusalem and Beirut last week during which he spoke of a "serious situation," reaffirming Washington's desire to avoid "a large-scale war." Shortly after this visit, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video criticizing the American administration for suspending arms deliveries to his country, and on June 24, he mentioned considering a "redeployment to the North" after the end of the "intense phase" of the fighting in Rafah.

Since then, several videos have shown Merkava tanks, as well as M109 howitzers, identified in videos shot in northern Israel.

The Merkava is the main battle tank of the Israeli Army (IDF), in service since the late 1970s. Designed to maximize crew protection, it is distinguished by its front-mounted engine, offering an additional layer of protection. The latest model, the Merkava Mk IV, is armed with a 120mm smoothbore cannon, capable of firing high-velocity anti-tank projectiles as well as guided anti-tank missiles. It is equipped with modular composite armor, a "Trophy" active protection system against missiles and rockets, and has the capacity to transport troops or wounded in addition to its four-person crew. The Merkava Mk IV has improved mobility thanks to its 1500 horsepower diesel engine, allowing a maximum speed of 64 km/h on the road.

The M109 is an American 155mm self-propelled howitzer widely used around the world, including by the Israeli Army (IDF). Entering service in the 1960s, it has undergone numerous upgrades to enhance its capabilities. The latest version, the M109A7, is equipped with a 155mm cannon capable of firing conventional shells as well as guided munitions with a maximum range of 40 km. This armored vehicle offers increased protection against direct fire and shell fragments. Equipped with a 675 horsepower diesel engine, it reaches a maximum speed of 56 km/h. Its chassis and components have been modernized to improve mobility and durability on the battlefield. The M109A7 also features advanced navigation and fire control systems for improved accuracy and rapid response.

These troop movements suggest a potential military intervention in southern Lebanon, but these forces are regularly targeted by direct and indirect anti-tank missile fire. In response, the IDF conducts strikes on installations in southern Lebanon. However, a UN mission is present in southern Lebanon near the Blue Line with the aim of maintaining peace, and it is expected that this force will not confront a hypothetical advance of Israeli troops.

Germany and the Netherlands have advised their citizens to leave the country as soon as possible, France advises its citizens against traveling to Lebanon, Iran, and Israel, and the United States asks American citizens to prepare for immediate evacuation. The situation thus seems to be leading to war. However, Israel is already entangled in a very complex and deadly war in the Gaza Strip.