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Focus: How North Korea’s Growing Role in Ukraine War Strengthens Ties with Russia.
The war in Ukraine, which has reshaped global geopolitical dynamics since 2022, may have reached a new milestone with reports indicating the presence of North Korean troops on Russian territory. These soldiers, reportedly deployed near Kursk, are said to have been integrated into Russian airborne and marine units, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS). This unprecedented military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang raises significant questions about its strategic and geopolitical implications. What is the reality of this alliance? How could it impact the Ukrainian conflict and regional and global balances?
In the longer term, the Russia-North Korea collaboration could have implications for other strategic areas, particularly in the Asia-Pacific (Picture source: KCNA)
In recent weeks, evidence has emerged suggesting that North Korea is no longer limiting its involvement to supplying arms to Russia but is now directly engaging in the conflict. By November 2024, approximately 10,900 North Korean troops are reported to have been deployed to Russia, alongside additional weapons, such as multiple rocket launchers and self-propelled artillery systems, supplied to Moscow. This military partnership, bolstered by a mutual defense treaty signed in June 2024, reflects a deepening relationship between two regimes marginalized by Western powers.
The presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia has yet to be officially confirmed, but reports and testimonies are growing. On November 25, 2024, Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, stated that while there is no evidence of direct deployment in Ukraine, North Korean troops are positioned near Kursk. This strategic location, near the Ukrainian border, raises questions about whether Moscow seeks to obscure their involvement to avoid diplomatic consequences.
For Russia, the rationale behind such an alliance is clear. Facing significant human losses, estimated at 610,000 soldiers since the conflict began, Moscow must address a growing personnel shortage. The deployment of North Korean units could help preserve Russian forces while showcasing the ability to secure diverse support. However, this strategy could also be seen as a sign of vulnerability, underscoring Russia’s increasing reliance on partners like Pyongyang, which exists on the fringes of the international system.
For North Korea, this engagement serves dual objectives. Economically, Pyongyang seeks to benefit from Russian financial compensation, estimated at approximately $2,000 per soldier per month, although much of this amount reportedly flows back into North Korea’s state coffers. Militarily, North Korea stands to gain access to strategic technologies, particularly for upgrading its drone and ballistic missile capabilities, which are critical to its regional ambitions.
However, this military cooperation entails significant risks for both parties. For Russia, reliance on foreign troops could raise questions about its military sovereignty, while deploying North Korean units exposes Pyongyang to potential human losses that could destabilize an already economically strained regime.
For Pyongyang, overly visible involvement in the conflict could exacerbate its diplomatic isolation and provoke a response from China, its historical ally. While Beijing officially supports closer ties between its neighbors, it remains committed to regional stability and may act to curb North Korea’s ambitions if they risk triggering military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The international community views this alliance with concern. In Ukraine, where armed forces are struggling to counter Russian advances, the arrival of North Korean troops is seen as a symbolic escalation. While their immediate operational impact remains limited, their contribution could evolve, particularly if elite units such as North Korea’s XI Corps, which specialized in infiltration and special operations, are deployed.
In East Asia, South Korea perceives this deployment as a direct threat. Officials in Seoul fear that North Korean troops could gain military experience that might later be used against them. This concern could prompt South Korea to reassess its policy of non-involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, potentially increasing its military support to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, the United States and NATO have condemned this cooperation as further evidence of alignment between authoritarian regimes opposing the current international order. Washington may seek to strengthen sanctions against Pyongyang while increasing pressure on Beijing to limit military transfers between North Korea and Russia.
The growing partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang reflects the increasing polarization of international relations. As Russia distances itself from Western markets and alliances, it is strengthening ties with non-aligned partners such as North Korea, Iran, and other isolated states. This trend could transform the Ukrainian conflict into a theater not only of local forces but also of globally influenced dynamics.
In the longer term, the Russia-North Korea collaboration could have implications for other strategic areas, particularly in the Asia-Pacific. The modernization of Pyongyang’s military capabilities, facilitated by Russian technology transfers, could heighten tensions with South Korea, Japan, and the United States, increasing the risk of regional conflict.
The potential presence of North Korean troops alongside Russian forces symbolizes a new stage in the war in Ukraine and in global geopolitical alliances. While their immediate military contribution remains limited, the strategic implications of this alliance are substantial, challenging traditional balances in both Europe and Asia. Close monitoring will be required to anticipate future developments and contain the consequences of military cooperation that could reshape the global balance of power in lasting ways.