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Iranian Ballistic Missiles a Growing Threat to Israel and Middle East.
On October 27, 2024, Israel launched a series of airstrikes targeting several missile bases belonging to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This operation follows a recent surge in tensions between Iran and Israel, involving attacks by Iranian-backed proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, and direct strikes from Iranian missiles and drones on Israeli targets on October 4. While Israel aims to curb Iran's regional military influence, Iran has announced plans to increase its military budget by 200%. This escalation raises fears of open conflict and places Iran's ballistic missile program at the center of international scrutiny, as detailed below.
Iranian Emad ballistic missile (Picture source: WikiCommons)
The development of Iranian missiles began during the Shah's rule when initial military collaborations, including with Israel, laid the groundwork for an emerging arms industry. However, following the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the severing of Western military ties, Iran turned to alternative partnerships, notably with North Korea, to obtain missile technology. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), characterized by Iraqi missile strikes on Iranian soil, further accelerated Iran's missile development efforts. By the 1990s, Iran focused on domestic production, marking a significant step toward independence in this critical sector.
Iran's ballistic missile program now includes a wide array of weapons with varying ranges and capabilities, reflecting significant technological advancements. These missiles are central to Iran's deterrence strategy, providing the country with substantial strike potential across the region. Below is an overview of Iran's primary ballistic missiles:
Shahab-2
Based on the Scud-B, the Shahab-2 has a range of approximately 500 km. Introduced in 1998, this short-range missile can reach neighboring countries and offers a reliable quick-response capability. Its widespread use underscores its importance in Iran’s strategic arsenal.
Fateh-313
Unveiled in 2015, the Fateh-313 has a short-range capability of up to 500 km and includes an enhanced guidance system for improved accuracy. It poses a significant threat to strategic targets within the extended vicinity of Iran's borders, particularly in Iraq and other nearby areas.
Zolfaghar
Operational since 2017, the Zolfaghar has a range of 700 km and features advanced guidance technology. First used in Syria against ISIS targets, this missile demonstrates Iran’s capability to strike with precision beyond its borders.
Khorramshahr ballistic missile unveiled during a military parade in Tehran on 22 September 2017 (Picture source: Tasnim News Agency)
Qiam-1
Developed in 2010, the Qiam-1 has a range of 700-800 km and features a wingless design for greater in-flight stability. Used against U.S. bases in Iraq, the Qiam-1 highlights Iran's focus on targeting enemy infrastructure with precision strikes, especially in saturation attacks due to its mobility and rapid launch capability.
Shahab-3
With a medium range of 1,300 km, the Shahab-3 entered service in 2003. Designed to reach Israel and other distant targets, it plays a critical role in Iran's deterrence strategy, directly threatening strategic targets and bolstering Tehran’s regional defensive stance.
Emad
Introduced in 2015, the Emad is an upgraded version of the Shahab-3 with a range of 1,500 km and an advanced guidance system. This improvement provides Iran with a more accurate long-range targeting capability, establishing it as a key component of Iran’s missile arsenal.
Ghadr
Operational since 2004, the Ghadr has an approximate range of 1,600 km. Designed for greater precision and range, it can reach targets throughout the Middle East, including Israel, showcasing Iran’s focus on mid-range missiles with enhanced payload capacity and maneuverability.
Sajjil
The Sajjil, introduced in 2008, is a solid-fuel ballistic missile with a 2,000 km range, enabling strikes well beyond the immediate region. Its solid-fuel propulsion allows for quicker deployment and is more challenging to intercept, marking a substantial technological leap in Iran’s missile capabilities.
Khorramshahr
Since its entry into service in 2017, the Khorramshahr has demonstrated a range of 2,000 km and a high payload capacity, designed to carry multiple warheads. This missile can saturate enemy defenses, posing a direct threat to strategic targets, and is one of the most formidable weapons in Iran's arsenal, impacting regional security dynamics.
This diversified arsenal, with ranges spanning from 500 km to 2,000 km, underscores Iran's capability to strike targets at varying distances, solidifying its regional power status. Through this array of missiles, Tehran conveys a deterrence strategy based on retaliation and the ability to overwhelm opposing defense systems, reinforcing its position as an armed regional power.
Iran's Ballistic and Cruise Missiles (Picture source: CSIS)
During Iran's missile strikes on Israel on October 1, 2024, the main systems deployed included the Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan missiles. The recently unveiled Fattah-1 is a medium-range ballistic missile known for its long-range targeting precision. The Kheibar Shekan, in contrast, is a longer-range ballistic missile with a significant payload capacity, engineered for distant target strikes with advanced guidance systems that improve defense penetration, a vital component in Iran’s deterrence posture.
Beyond its own arsenal, Iran has extended its military strategy through its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Since the 2000s, Tehran has transferred missiles and conversion technologies to these groups, enhancing their reach and enabling them to target strategic installations of regional adversaries. Hezbollah, for example, now holds a significant stockpile of rockets and missiles, some with ranges up to 300 km, capable of reaching infrastructure within Israel. The Houthis have similarly used Iranian missiles to attack Saudi and Emirati cities, underscoring the importance of technology transfers within Tehran’s regional strategy.
While Iranian military doctrine is strongly deterrent-focused, it also relies on a retaliatory strategy aimed at overwhelming enemy defense systems. By leveraging substantial ballistic and cruise missile strikes, Iran signals its readiness to respond to any attacks with multiple strikes designed to saturate Israeli or American missile defenses. This strategy, as confirmed by numerous analysts, highlights Iran’s resilience in the face of direct military threats and its capacity to deliver decisive counterattacks, even against technologically advanced powers.
Iran's proposed military budget increase for 2024 reflects its intention to further strengthen its ballistic capabilities amid escalating tensions with Israel and regional allies. This enhancement may include improvements in missile precision, range, and strike power, consolidating Iran’s position as a regional military force.