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Focus: Aleppo's Fall Highlights Syrian Army's Capacity Shortcomings.
The fall of Aleppo to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied rebel forces in late November 2024 marks a significant turning point in the Syrian civil war. This swift victory highlights not only the deep structural weaknesses of the Syrian army but also the strategic and technological advancements of rebel forces. While the Syrian army struggles under its own limitations and increasing dependence on absentee international allies, the rebels have demonstrated adaptability and innovation, enabling a breakthrough that continues to hold for now.
The Syrian army relies heavily on weapons and vehicles inherited from the Soviet era (Picture source: Facebook Channel ForMotherSyria)
With approximately 169,000 active-duty soldiers, the Syrian army appears structurally capable of conducting defensive and counter-offensive operations. However, the reality is far more complex. Since the onset of the conflict in 2011, extensive desertions, combat losses, and low morale have significantly diminished the army's effectiveness. Elite units such as the Republican Guard and Tiger Forces, although better trained and equipped, are too few to compensate for the disorganization and underperformance of regular units.
The Syrian army relies heavily on weapons and vehicles inherited from the Soviet era. Its main battle tanks, including T-55s, T-62Ms, T-72B3s, and a few T-90As, even when modernized, are outdated compared to current tactical requirements. Infantry fighting vehicles like BMP-1s and BMP-2s, along with troop carriers such as BTR-50s, BTR-70s, and BTR-80s, suffer from inadequate maintenance and prolonged use. Artillery systems such as BM-21 Grad rocket launchers and 122mm D-30 howitzers, while powerful, are unsuitable for rapid urban combat, where mobility and precision are crucial.
The Syrian air defense system, once a critical asset, is now constrained by insufficient maintenance and lack of upgrades. Despite having sophisticated systems like the S-300PMU2 and Pantsir-S1, their operational readiness is hampered by reduced technical support from Russia, which is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Similarly, the Syrian air force, equipped with Mi-24 and Mi-17 helicopters and Su-24M and Su-25 aircraft, faces limitations in numbers and vulnerability to rebel drone attacks and coordinated strikes.
Rebel forces, particularly HTS, have shown notable adaptability in contrast. HTS, estimated to have 25,000 to 30,000 fighters, has structured its units into disciplined, well-coordinated groups over years of consolidation in its controlled territories. Rebel weaponry is often a mix of captured Syrian military equipment and supplies from regional allies like Turkey.
One of the most striking elements of this offensive has been HTS’s increasing use of drones. These devices, often improvised or modified, have been deployed for precision strikes and reconnaissance. During the Aleppo attack, drones were also used to drop leaflets urging regime forces to defect, combining military and psychological tactics.
HTS also relies on captured or modified armored vehicles and weaponized trucks, offering superior mobility. Guerrilla tactics, including rapid infiltrations, surprise attacks, and tunnel systems, compensate for the rebels' lack of heavy artillery or aerial support.
The survival of Bashar al-Assad's regime has heavily depended on international allies. Russia has provided airstrikes, modern military equipment, and strategic advisors. However, its involvement has diminished as resources are diverted to Ukraine. Iran, another key ally, faces international pressure and repeated Israeli strikes on its assets, limiting its assistance. Hezbollah, previously a critical ground support force, is similarly weakened by strategic losses in other conflicts.
These external supports are now insufficient to offset the Syrian army's structural deficiencies. International sanctions, a devastated economy, and political isolation have left the military unable to replenish its equipment or recruit adequately. Corruption and mismanagement within the high command exacerbate these challenges, further undermining the military’s overall effectiveness.
The disparity between the two sides is most evident in their technological capabilities and adaptability. While the Syrian army adheres to conventional warfare doctrines, the rebels have adopted unconventional strategies. The use of FPV (First-Person View) drones exemplifies this shift—cost-effective and precise, these drones disrupt enemy lines with efficiency.
Additionally, HTS has implemented functional governance structures in its territories, providing a degree of stability to local populations. This governance model enables the group to consolidate control quickly after military victories, as demonstrated in Aleppo. In contrast, the Syrian army, focused on protecting strategic interests for its allies, struggles to maintain the loyalty of local populations.
The loss of Aleppo underscores the systemic challenges facing the Syrian army. Its reliance on faltering external support, inability to modernize, and lack of tactical innovation leave it vulnerable to evolving non-state actors. This defeat also highlights the growing role of technology and flexibility in modern conflicts.
For the Assad regime, this setback raises critical questions about its long-term viability. While its allies may continue to sustain it for now, the instability of the regional and international context could make the fall of Aleppo a prelude to a new phase in the Syrian civil war, where shifting frontlines and power dynamics become increasingly unpredictable