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Arrival of Iranian Missiles in Russia Increases Risks on Ukraine's Front Lines.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has strengthened its military ties with countries like Iran and North Korea. This strategy aims to address its domestic production challenges in manufacturing sufficient quantities of weapon systems. Among these recent acquisitions, the introduction of Iranian ballistic missiles, notably the Fath-360 and Ababil, has the potential to alter the tactical balance on the battlefield. These missiles provide Russia with increased flexibility to target Ukrainian front-line positions while preserving its longer-range capabilities for strategic strikes. This development presents a significant challenge to Ukraine and its Western allies.
The US Department of Defense confirmed in September the delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia, although some reports indicate that launch systems for these missiles have not yet been provided (Picture source: WikiCommon)
The Fath-360 is a tactical surface-to-surface ballistic missile developed by Iran. Equipped with satellite guidance (GNSS) and an inertial navigation system (INS), it is designed for rapid and precise strikes against enemy targets such as air defenses and fortified positions. Its solid-fuel propulsion ensures quick launch readiness, with a speed reaching Mach 3, or up to Mach 4 when using satellite guidance. The missile measures 5.175 meters in length, weighs 787 kilograms, carries a 150-kilogram high-explosive warhead, and has a range of 100 to 120 kilometers, with an estimated accuracy of 30 meters CEP. Mounted on a compact, mobile transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) system capable of carrying multiple missiles, it offers considerable mobility for deployment across varied terrains. Actively used during military exercises, the Fath-360 is a key asset in Iran's tactical operations.
The Ababil, a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) developed by Pakistan, was tested for the first time in January 2017. It is reported to be capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), though this claim remains unverified. Powered by solid fuel, the three-stage missile has a maximum range of 2,200 kilometers and can be equipped with either nuclear or conventional warheads. Its estimated diameter of 1.7 meters includes a specially designed warhead section, possibly compensating for a lack of MIRV miniaturization. Despite doubts regarding its MIRV technology, Pakistan has demonstrated significant expertise in related areas, such as post-separation control systems, with suspected support from China. The Ababil represents a strategic response to regional ballistic missile defense systems, enhancing Pakistan's deterrent capabilities in an evolving South Asian arms race.
Although their precision may be limited, these missiles are suitable for cost-effective strikes on Ukrainian front-line positions, allowing Russia to reserve its more advanced missiles for strategic targets. This approach reflects a Russian tactic of overwhelming adversaries with numerous attacks, often using lower-quality equipment. According to military experts, this strategy maximizes the utility of Moscow's arsenal while increasing the volume of strikes.
The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed in September the delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia, although some reports indicate that launch systems for these missiles have not yet been provided. Nevertheless, Russia’s intent to deploy these missiles is evident, as they enable sustained pressure on Ukrainian forces. Additionally, these weapons allow Moscow to conserve its longer-range Iskander missiles for critical infrastructure or deep strikes on Ukrainian positions.
Model of the Iranian new Ababil OP ballistic missile on display at Army-2023 (Picture source: IRNA)
The acquisition of Iranian missiles underscores the limitations of Russia’s defense industry, which struggles to produce sufficient quantities of similar systems. This deficiency has pushed Moscow to diversify its arms procurement through countries like Iran and North Korea. Cooperation with these nations reflects a strategic alliance that positions the West and its allies against a bloc of states seeking to circumvent international sanctions and bolster their military capabilities.
The implications of these arms transfers are far-reaching. By increasing pressure on front-line positions, Iranian missiles compel Ukraine to allocate more resources to defending its troops, thereby limiting its counteroffensive capabilities and necessitating greater support from Western allies. However, international assistance remains constrained. Experts note that Ukraine has received relatively small quantities of missiles and air defense systems, leaving gaps in its ability to address these emerging threats.
This situation is compounded by political uncertainties in the West, particularly in the United States, where a potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency could impact the scale of military aid to Ukraine. Trump has frequently criticized such assistance, favoring negotiations to end the conflict. This stance could reshape the contours of Western support, adding complexity to an already protracted war.
The arrival of Iranian missiles in Russia marks a new stage in the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. These weapons enhance Moscow's ability to intensify front-line attacks while preserving its long-range capabilities for other strategic objectives. For Ukraine, this translates into an increased threat and sustained pressure on its military resources, emphasizing the need for enhanced support from international partners. This development also highlights the growing alliances between Russia, Iran, and other non-aligned states, redefining the geopolitical dynamics of a war that continues to reshape the global order.