Focus | Russia moves several units from Pokrovsk axis to Kursk region.

The Russian military command redeployed reserve units from the Pokrovsky direction to the Kursk region, where the Armed Forces operation is ongoing. This is stated in the latest report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a surprising move given that the priority is on capturing the entire Donbas. However, will such a redeployment be significant?
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Servicemen of the 175th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 76th Guards Chernigov Air Assault Division heading towards Kharkov region, Belgorod oblast, April 2022 (Picture source: Russian Fighters)

The Russian military command may have redeployed limited elements intended to reinforce Russia's primary offensive operation in the Pokrovsk direction to defend against the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region. According to the ISW, this shows that the operational pressure from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region is affecting Russian operations across all sectors of the front. ISW reports that on August 14 and 17, at least one company from Russia's 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade was transferred from the Pokrovsk direction in eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region. The brigade has been operating east of Pokrovsk since mid-August. In the Russian army, a company is sized similarly to NATO's structure and comprises just over a hundred men.

Additionally, on August 19, open-source intelligence revealed that Russia had also redeployed units from the 1st Slavic Motorized Brigade (1st Army Corps) from the Donetsk direction to the Kursk region. At the end of July and in August 2024, reports indicated that units from this brigade were involved in operations along the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes. It is likely that the redeployed forces were reserve units that the Russian military command intended to use to reinforce the grouping in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes.

The ISW noted that so far, the Russian military command has avoided redeploying forces to the Kursk region from these directions and has primarily withdrawn troops from lower-priority areas: northern Kharkiv region, the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis, and the western part of the Zaporizhia region. These sectors are less active, and the fighting is more positional than maneuver-based, making it easier to freeze them if needed.

Given the number of soldiers redeployed from critical sectors, it is unlikely that this will cause a significant change. The units deployed from Russia's main effort axis are not depleted enough by this reinforcement to delay or paralyze the Russian advance. The primary focus of the Russian army remains the capture of the Donbas, as previously mentioned, specifically the Pokrovsk region, to secure the major cities that remain to be captured by the Russians, such as Kupiansk, Sloviansk, and Svatove.

Indeed, Pokrovsk is the convergence point of three routes coming from inside Ukraine, leading to the major cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which will be significant engagements for the belligerents but are essential for complete control of the Donetsk Oblast, which is a key objective of the Russian army.

Regarding Ukrainian movements, Ukraine launched an offensive operation in the Russian region of Kursk on August 6. As of August 27, Ukrainian defense forces have taken control of 100 localities and captured 594 Russian soldiers and approximately 1,200 square kilometers. Isolated from the rest of Russian territory by the destruction of bridges, these areas represent an attempt to create a buffer zone. However, in reality, although this attack was a major surprise, control of the territory is relative, as it is more about controlling the roads and villages. As for the inter-village areas, control is much more difficult in the short term. According to reports as of September 2, the Ukrainian advance seems to be stalling, and in some places, being pushed back by the Russians. The situation is volatile, making it particularly complex to predict the outcome of this incursion into Russian territory.