After several weeks of tension with Ukraine, Belarus has received an official request to withdraw its troops stationed at the border. Instead, strange markings have appeared on vehicles. You may recall the "Z," "O," and "V" markings on Russian vehicles to identify them, primarily to indicate the axes of Russian forces' advances in Ukraine.Now, "B" markings have appeared on Belarusian vehicles and tanks.
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Belarussian T-72 with B marks painted on Kontakt ERA armor  (Picture source: Locals)

A few days ago, Lukashenko announced that a contingent of more than 200 tanks, 1,700 armored vehicles, and several thousand troops would join Russian forces in a joint brigade stationed in southern Russia. At present, it is extremely difficult to determine whether this mixed unit will be deployed to the front or not, and what the consequences might be, but this could explain the presence of these markings. However, no corresponding markings have been observed on Russian units so far, so it is surprising that some of these vehicles would be used alongside Russian forces but with different markings.

Another hypothesis is that Belarus is preparing for a potential intervention if needed. Given the calls to withdraw troops and avoid escalating tensions, this could be an attempt to flex muscles, which would have two major consequences. The first is the entry of a new sovereign actor into the war—not merely as a supporter of Russian forces, as North Korea or Iran might do, but by opening a second front. This would be a first in this conflict and could possibly have serious consequences for Western support of Ukraine.

The more likely consequence, however, is preparation for an intervention that may never happen, as such a move would not be beneficial for Minsk. It may simply be a show of strength to send a message.

Moreover, military exercises are officially starting in southern Belarus, which Minsk cites as the reason for not withdrawing its troops from the border. The markings could possibly be related to these exercises.

Belarussian supply truck marked with "B", near ukrainian border ( Picture source: Belarussian Telegram channels )

It is important to keep in mind that it is somewhat complex for Lukashenko to be too active in the war in Ukraine, as his regime is quite unstable, and there is considerable opposition within Belarus. A war of the intensity currently taking place in Ukraine would be unmanageable for Minsk, especially in the long term.

Indeed, the Belarusian army is not as well-equipped as the Russian army, and they do not have the same demographic resources as the Russians.

Therefore, for the time being, the most likely scenario seems to be a desire to send a message, which could explain the military exercises.

But let’s remain realistic—the fact that Wagner has used its usual communication channels to specify that the group is present in Belarus and Africa for training purposes is not insignificant. This clearly shows an intention to leverage the experience gained from the war in Ukraine to prepare for a future conflict.