Belarus Scrambles Jet To Destroy Russian Drone for 'First Time'.

According to the Belarusian project Hajun, an open-source intelligence organization monitoring the military activity of Russian and Belarusian troops in Belarus, aviation was used for the first time in Belarus to shoot down a Shahed drone on August 29th. After a 20-minute pursuit, two explosions were heard in the Yeltsk area of Belarus. This surprising first occurrence is intriguing to analyze.
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The remains of a Shahed-136 drone in Kyiv in 2023. (Picture source: Oleksii Samsonov)

Russia has utilized Iranian-made Shahed drones, also known as "kamikaze drones," to target Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructures. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is Putin's closest ally. Although the Russian president has refrained from directly involving Minsk in the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusian territory has been used to stage attacks.

The Hajun project reported that the Iranian drone entered Belarusian airspace in the Gomel region around 3:30 AM, prompting the deployment of a Belarusian air force fighter jet. Less than half an hour later, at least two explosions were heard in the Yelsk district, "and a bright flash was seen in the sky," according to a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

This incident likely represents the first recorded case of a Belarusian air force fighter attempting to destroy a real military target in the sky. A member of the Hajun project stated that no additional information about the drone was available, but that Minsk has been deploying planes for some time to monitor drones flying in Belarus, so the use of aircraft is not unusual for the Belarusian air force in recent months.

This week, Kyiv warned Minsk against strengthening its military in the Gomel region over the past three weeks, about 30 miles from the Ukrainian border, and promised a response if Belarusian forces crossed the border. However, the Belarusian opposition and military analysts have stated that it is unlikely that Lukashenko's troops pose an immediate threat to Ukraine in the short term, and that this action has political rather than military objectives.

With the country being extremely closed off, it is difficult to know exactly how the population feels, although the opposition, sometimes in exile, claims that the people do not support the current regime and its closeness to Moscow. The reality is likely more moderated.

This is the first time Belarus has shot down a drone from its close ally, Moscow. This is surprising because for several weeks, Belarus has been mobilizing its troops and announced the creation of a joint brigade with Russia. It is therefore illogical for the drone to be shot down, as this is not the first time drones have flown over Belarusian airspace, some even launched by Russian forces stationed in Belarus. This action can be explained by two hypotheses, which will undoubtedly remain unconfirmed. The first hypothesis is an incident on the drone that forced the air forces to shoot it down, such as the drone descending and about to fall on Belarusian territory. This seems to be the most probable hypothesis. The second is a destruction made by an individual initiative of the pilot. Indeed, it is highly unlikely that it was the will of the military leadership to create this incident between the two nations, but an initiative by the pilot possibly favorable to Ukraine is a much less probable possibility than the first hypothesis.