Analysis: Why there is no game-changer missile system in Ukraine.

The Storm Shadow cruise missile is the latest highly touted weapon used by Ukraine. The missile has proven effective, striking important targets deep inside Russian-controlled territory. However, Russian adaptations over the past year have limited the impact of the Storm Shadow, according to several military experts. There have been several weapons that the press has hailed as "game changers," but in reality, there is no such type of weapon. Let's analyze two of these weapons.
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ATACMS Missiles demanded by Ukrainians. (Picture source: United States DoD )

First, there were drones, then HIMARS. With depressing regularity, each new miracle weapon is presented as a game-changing factor for Ukraine, only to lose its shine when Russia adapts to it.

The most recent example is the Storm Shadow, an air-launched cruise missile developed by the United Kingdom and France, which Ukraine used with spectacular effect, notably in a strike in June 2023 that damaged the vital Chonhar Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula to southern Ukraine. It should be noted that France has also decided to supply the same missile to Ukraine under the name SCALP.

The Storm Shadow is an air-to-ground cruise missile weighing 1,300 kilograms. It is equipped with a powerful Turbomeca Microturbo TRI 60-30 jet engine producing a thrust of 5.4 kN, enabling it to reach a remarkable speed of 1,000 km/h. The missile's dimensions include a length of 5.1 meters, a diameter of 0.48 meters, and a wingspan of 3.0 meters.

The Storm Shadow has an operational range of 560 kilometers. However, for the export version, the range is limited to 250 kilometers. This range allows it to strike deep within enemy territory without endangering the launching aircraft, making it quite practical in the context of the conflict in Ukraine.

The missile's payload is a 450-kilogram BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge) explosive warhead, ensuring significant destructive power upon impact. The payload is accompanied by its guidance system, including inertial, GPS, and TERPROM (Terrain Profile Matching) systems for guidance. Additionally, during the terminal phase of the mission, the Storm Shadow uses an infrared DSMAC (Digital Scene-Mapping Area Correlator) imaging system for precise targeting.

The Storm Shadow has been adopted by various countries. Among the countries that have acquired and deployed this advanced cruise missile are Egypt, France, Greece, Italy, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and now Ukraine as well. Some observers believe that the Storm Shadow will be crucial for Ukraine's counter-offensive.

STORM SHADOW / SCALP Long-range air-launched attack cruise missile ( Picture source: Army Recognition )

However, just as Russia adapted to the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), which proved devastating in Ukrainian attacks against supply depots and command posts, the Russian military has also found ways to mitigate the impact of the Storm Shadow. Electronic warfare measures and the relocation of logistics sites and headquarters beyond the range of HIMARS rockets have been tactics used by Russia to adjust. Let's review some technical characteristics of the HIMARS.

The HIMARS is a versatile weapon platform that can be equipped with six rockets from the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or a single tactical missile from the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Weighing 10,886 kilograms, this system is designed for high mobility and can operate effectively in various terrains and conditions.

The vehicle provides some protection to its crew against small arms fire and shell splinters, ensuring their safety during combat operations. With a maximum speed of 85 km/h on roads, the HIMARS can quickly reposition to respond to emerging threats and provide precise fire support where it is most needed.

Several nations have integrated this system into their military forces. Among the users of HIMARS are Australia, Canada, Estonia, Finland, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, and, as expected, Ukraine also possesses it.

The HIMARS has a variety of ammunition types, allowing it to engage targets at different distances. When equipped with the Extended-Range Guided MLRS (ER-MLRS) rocket, it can strike targets up to an impressive distance of 45 kilometers. The new Extended-Range Guided MLRS (GMLRS) missile further extends its range, allowing it to reach targets at a distance of 70 kilometers. The HIMARS is operated by a crew of three. It has a length of 5,046 meters, a width of 2.16 meters, and a height of 2.251 meters.

For missions requiring even greater range, the HIMARS can be equipped with tactical missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), capable of reaching targets up to 300 kilometers away. Of course, Ukraine would like to have this capability to be able to reach deeper into Russian sites.

M142 MLRS High Mobility Artillery Rocket System ( Picture source: Ukrainian MoD )

While there have been reports of successful strikes with the Storm Shadow in the weeks following the Chonhar Bridge attack, including the elimination of a high-ranking Russian commander and an attack on a Russian vehicle repair depot in Crimea, there has been no significant impact on Russian forces since the missile's introduction in mid-May. This is attributed to the adaptations made by the Russian military in response to HIMARS last June.

Despite this, it is expected that Ukraine's long-range weapons will continue to play a role in the conflict, given the vast frontlines and vulnerabilities of Russian infrastructure. However, Ukraine faces limitations due to the limited number of Storm Shadow missiles received and the vulnerability of the aircraft that launch them in the heavily contested airspace above Ukraine.

As Ukraine seeks to acquire the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) from the United States, which has a range of 190 miles, longer than the 155 miles of the Storm Shadow and the 50 miles of HIMARS, it encounters resistance from the United States, who are concerned about its use against targets inside Russia. The effectiveness of ATACMS, like that of the Storm Shadow, could be tested if Russia manages to adapt once again.

While new long-range weapons can still cause damage and force Russia to modify its operations, the question remains whether their impact will be limited to the tactical level or if it will be deep enough to tilt the conflict in Ukraine's favor. It is essential to remember that there is no truly game-changing weapon capable of completely altering the situation in Ukraine.