Iran Missile Strikes on Israel Reveal Limits of Ballistic Missile Threat in Modern Warfare.

According to information published by Business Insider on October 12, 2024, Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel highlight a growing debate about the effectiveness of ballistic missiles in modern warfare. Despite their ability to deliver sudden, destructive blows, the real-world impact of these weapons appears to be less decisive than their reputation suggests.
Follow Army Recognition on Google News at this link

Crane clearing debris from Iranian missiles fired on Israel. (Picture source: Twitter account of Israel Defense Forces)

In two high-profile attacks, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, yet the results were underwhelming. In April, a barrage of 300 missiles and drones was largely intercepted by Israeli and allied defense systems, while a subsequent strike in October saw a higher percentage of missiles breaching defenses but causing minimal damage overall.

While these attacks made headlines with their dramatic visuals—explosions, fiery streaks across the sky—the aftermath tells a different story. Critical infrastructure remains functional, public morale appears undeterred, and the Israeli military continues its operations. This mirrors the experience of Ukraine, which has endured repeated Russian missile attacks over two years without a collapse in its fighting capacity. Such resilience raises questions about whether the threat posed by ballistic missiles is overstated.

Ballistic missiles have long been feared for their potential to strike without warning, following a high-arcing path before slamming into targets at high speed. This threat, dating back to World War II with Nazi Germany's V-2 rockets, has only grown as more countries—31 at present—develop their own missile capabilities. Yet, history shows that ballistic missiles, despite their lethality, rarely decide wars on their own. Whether in the 1980s Iran-Iraq conflict, the 2015 Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, or recent conflicts involving Israel and Ukraine, missile barrages have inflicted damage but failed to break the will of the targeted populations.

Modern ballistic missiles are more accurate than their historical counterparts, aided by advanced guidance systems like GPS. Still, even high-tech missiles often miss precise targets, and the damage inflicted is often limited compared to the massive bombing raids of previous wars. In World War II, for example, Allied forces dropped millions of tons of bombs on Germany without compelling surrender, showing that even overwhelming firepower from the air has its limits.

Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, reportedly numbering around 3,000, may seem formidable on paper, but in practice, even a simultaneous launch of all these weapons would face significant interception and accuracy issues. Furthermore, the damage caused by those that do get through would likely be less than a single large-scale bombing raid from the past.

Ballistic missiles remain a potent symbol of military power, and their proliferation is a legitimate concern, especially if used to target infrastructure or as a means of political coercion. However, as Iran's attacks on Israel suggest, these weapons alone are unlikely to secure a decisive victory in war.