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Missile Diplomacy: Russia Multiplies Tests to Reaffirm Its Strategic Capabilities.
Recently, Russia has conducted numerous sophisticated missile tests and launches, aiming to reinforce its image as a military power in an increasingly tense geopolitical context. Among these tests, the Oreshnik, Kalibr, Onyx, and more recently the Zircon missiles, highlighted Moscow’s intent to demonstrate its technological capabilities while sending a strategic message to the international community. These activities go beyond technical experimentation, revealing both ambitions and limitations in Russia’s military strategy, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine.
A Russian Ministry of Defense video captures the launch of the 3M22 "Zircon" hypersonic missile from a combat ship during a test. (Picture source: Russian MoD)
The most recent significant test occurred on December 4, 2024, with the launch of Zircon missiles in the Eastern Mediterranean. These launches, conducted from the frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko, were accompanied by demonstrations of Kalibr missiles from the submarine Novorossiysk and Onyx missiles from Bastion coastal defense batteries. This operation aimed to emphasize Russia’s naval and technological capabilities in a strategic area. The Zircon missile, capable of reaching Mach 9 with a range of 1,000 kilometers, represents a milestone in Russian weaponry development, offering unparalleled strategic flexibility.
The Kalibr missile, a subsonic cruise missile deployed since 2015, remains a cornerstone of Russia’s strategy for precise long-range strikes. On November 28, 2024, Kalibr missiles were launched from the Black Sea, with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers. This missile has established itself as a versatile weapon, used against both land and maritime targets. In Syria and Ukraine, Kalibr missiles have been deployed to target critical infrastructure, showcasing their role in projecting Russian power.
Another key missile, the Onyx, known for its supersonic speed (Mach 2.5) and range of 600 kilometers, is integral to Russia’s strategy. During exercises in the Mediterranean on December 3, 2024, the Bastion-P coastal defense system launched Onyx missiles, underscoring Russia’s ability to safeguard its strategic bases in Syria and reinforce its regional influence.
One of the most notable events in recent months was the use of the Oreshnik ballistic missile on November 21, 2024, targeting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. With a range of 5,000 kilometers and a speed exceeding 12,000 km/h, the Oreshnik represents significant progress in Russian hypersonic missile technology. This missile, capable of carrying multiple independently guided warheads, has raised questions about its real objectives. President Vladimir Putin framed this launch as a symbolic response to Ukraine’s use of Western missiles, such as Britain’s Storm Shadow and the U.S.’s ATACMS. However, analysts suggest this demonstration was more about intimidation than a decisive battlefield innovation.
During exercises in the Mediterranean on December 3, 2024, the Bastion-P coastal defense system launched Onyx missiles (Picture source: RIA Novosti)
These tests also highlight the limitations of Russia’s strategy. Despite their impressive technological attributes, missiles have not shifted the strategic balance significantly. In Ukraine, the massive use of ballistic and cruise missiles has failed to sustainably disrupt Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure. Additionally, the high cost of these weapons, coupled with limited production capacity, undermines their effectiveness in a prolonged conflict.
Beyond their operational use, these missiles serve to bolster Russia’s missile diplomacy. By multiplying tests and public demonstrations, Moscow seeks to reaffirm its ability to strike strategic targets across Europe and beyond. This message targets not only the West but also allies like the Syrian regime, aiming to reassure them of continued military support. However, Russia faces increasing difficulties in defending its Syrian ally against the advancing armed groups. Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s presence in Syria has been progressively reduced.
Nevertheless, this strategy of intimidation carries risks. The verbal and technological escalation surrounding hypersonic missiles could exacerbate tensions with NATO while undermining arms control agreements. Russia has already lifted its moratorium on deploying medium- and short-range missiles, challenging decades of nuclear diplomacy. However, the true extent of Russia’s strategic intent remains uncertain and requires nuanced analysis.
The recent missile launches illustrate both the ambitions and contradictions of Moscow’s military strategy. While these demonstrations reinforce its image as a technological power, they also highlight structural challenges facing Russia in prolonged conflicts. In an increasingly polarized world, missile diplomacy may represent an attempt to reaffirm an international position, but at a significant economic and political cost.