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Leaked Document Unveils Russia’s Plans for Targeting Key Sites in Japan and South Korea.
Recently leaked Russian military documents have unveiled detailed plans for potential attacks on Japan and South Korea, targeting strategic civilian infrastructure, including nuclear power plants. These files, dated from 2013-2014 and obtained by the Financial Times through Western sources, highlight Moscow’s concerns about the vulnerability of its eastern flank in the event of a conflict with NATO and its Asian allies.
The cache of 29 secret documents reveals how Russia, wary of a coordinated attack by U.S. forces stationed in Japan and South Korea, identified a list of 160 priority targets. These include military facilities such as airbases and naval installations, as well as critical civilian infrastructure like tunnels, bridges, energy complexes, and industrial sites.
The documents reflect Moscow’s strategic apprehension over the perceived threat posed by Asia-Pacific allies of the West. In the event of a conflict in Europe, Russia anticipates a “horizontal escalation,” extending hostilities to Asia to counter or neutralize adversaries potentially supporting a Western offensive.
The plans highlight the use of the Kh-101 cruise missile as a key weapon among the scenarios described. This system, designed for precision strikes, was proposed to neutralize key installations in Japan and South Korea. One scenario includes a simulated attack on a Japanese radar base at Okushiritou, featuring detailed assessments of target structures and expected damage.
Of the 160 identified targets, 82 are military, such as command centers and radar installations. The remaining targets include critical civilian infrastructure, such as Japan’s Kanmon tunnel and nuclear energy complexes. In South Korea, strategic bridges and major industrial sites, including the Pohang steelworks, were also designated as priorities.
The meticulous planning is evident in the precise calculations for damaging heavily fortified facilities in South Korea. These details underscore the depth of Russian preparations for a potential conflict in the region.
This revelation emerges at a time when Asia plays a significant role in President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy. Russia has recently deepened its ties with North Korea, deploying 12,000 North Korean troops to assist its operations in Ukraine and offering economic and military support to Pyongyang. This dynamic underscores Moscow’s view of an intrinsic link between European and Asian theaters of conflict.
Experts argue that the plans confirm the interconnected nature of conflicts in Europe and Asia. William Alberque, a former NATO arms control official, emphasized that these documents illustrate the impossibility of Asia remaining unaffected by a European conflict and vice versa.
Despite Russia’s confidence in the Kh-101 missiles, their performance during the Ukraine conflict has revealed limitations. Experts note the missiles' lack of stealth against layered air defenses and insufficient accuracy for precision strikes, which is a significant drawback for low-yield munitions reliant on pinpoint targeting.
For Japan, these plans present a unique challenge, as the Russian threat is often perceived as secondary by the general public, despite consistent monitoring by the Japanese military. A rapid escalation originating in Europe would leave Tokyo with limited warning time, complicating its defense strategy.
The strained relationship between Russia and Japan, further exacerbated by unresolved territorial disputes over the Kuril Islands, adds complexity. While then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed commitment to negotiations on the matter, Russian statements have signaled an uncompromising stance.
In South Korea, the documents highlight the vulnerability of critical civilian and industrial infrastructure, such as refineries and chemical plants in Busan, underlining the strategic importance of these targets in a conflict scenario.
In addition to attack plans, the documents include reports on Russian bomber flights intended to test the air defenses of the region. One report details a February 2014 mission during the annexation of Crimea, where Tu-95 bombers conducted flights near South Korea and Japan, documenting responses from local air forces. Similar maneuvers, such as Tu-142 flights in 2024, reflect Moscow’s continued efforts to assess and potentially exploit regional vulnerabilities.
While these plans from 2013-2014 appear strategically plausible, their feasibility is questionable. The Kh-101 missiles, central to the scenarios, have demonstrated technical limitations, and the evolving geopolitical landscape presents further challenges. There is no public information confirming the modernization of these plans, although Russia's actions, including military flights near Japan, indicate sustained interest in the Asia-Pacific region.
In conclusion, the leaked documents offer a rare glimpse into the depth of Russian military planning for potential conflicts in Asia. They highlight Moscow’s concerns over the vulnerability of its eastern borders and the interconnected nature of global conflict theaters. While some capabilities may have been overstated, the revelations underscore the complexity of contemporary geopolitical dynamics and the challenges faced by Japan and South Korea in ensuring their security against multifaceted threats.