British army Intel Reports Russia's Escalation in Use of One-Way Attack Drones Against Ukraine.

According to a report published by the British Ministry of Defense (MoD) Intelligence Service on September 23, 2024, Russia launched over 1,300 One-Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (OWA-UAVs) into Ukraine during September alone. This marks the highest number of such drone strikes in a single month since the beginning of the conflict, signaling a significant escalation in the use of these unmanned aerial systems. The British MoD warns that, based on the current rate of operations, it is almost certain that Russia will surpass this figure in October 2024, reflecting a growing trend of intensified aerial assaults against Ukrainian targets.
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Debris of a Russian Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drone scattered across a Ukrainian field. (Picture source: Russian Social Network)

While it remains unclear whether Russia can sustain this aggressive rate of OWA-UAV (One-Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles ) strikes throughout the year, intelligence reports suggest that Moscow is likely expanding its capacity to produce these drones domestically. Previously reliant on Iranian-supplied UAVs, Russia is believed to be increasing its production capabilities to maintain and even amplify its ability to carry out large-scale attacks on Ukraine. This shift in supply lines is seen as part of a broader strategy to mitigate the risks of sanctions and supply chain disruptions, giving Moscow a more resilient capability to sustain its drone warfare efforts.

OWA-UAVs, often colloquially referred to as "kamikaze drones," are primarily employed to strike critical Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities. These drones, due to their low cost and ability to penetrate deep into Ukrainian territory, have proven effective in disrupting energy supplies and damaging critical civilian infrastructure, particularly ahead of the harsh winter months. This has put enormous pressure on Ukraine's air defense systems, which are tasked with countering both conventional missile strikes and these swarming UAVs.

In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, several Russian One-Way Attack (OWA) drones, or loitering munitions, have been deployed, each with specific technical features.

The Shahed-136 (Russian designation: Geran-2), developed by Iran, is one of the most frequently used OWA drones. It is known for its delta-wing design, giving it a distinctive appearance. The Shahed-136 is powered by a small engine, typically the MD-550, and has a range of about 2,500 kilometers. It carries a warhead of approximately 40-50 kilograms and is designed to strike static targets such as infrastructure and supply depots. While its speed is relatively low (about 185 km/h), its main strength lies in the ability to be deployed in large numbers, making it difficult for defense systems to intercept all of them​.

The Shahed-131 (Russian designation: Geran-1) is a smaller version of the Shahed-136 and shares much of the same design, though with a smaller payload and range. It has a range of about 900 kilometers and carries a warhead weighing around 10-15 kilograms. It also features a delta-wing design and is primarily used for shorter-range attacks on military targets​.

Russia’s domestically produced Lancet drone, developed by ZALA Aero, features more advanced targeting capabilities compared to the Shahed drones. The Lancet is equipped with electro-optical systems for greater precision and can carry a payload of up to 3 kilograms, depending on the model. It has a range of up to 40 kilometers and a speed of about 110 km/h. It is designed for tactical strikes on specific targets such as artillery, vehicles, and air defense systems. The Lancet’s modular design allows it to be used for both surveillance and attack missions​.

Each of these drones plays a crucial role in Russia’s strategy in Ukraine, especially in targeting rear positions and forcing Ukraine to expend significant resources on air defense. Despite their widespread use, many of these drones have been intercepted by Ukrainian defense systems, but their low cost and mass deployment make them a persistent threat​.

The increased tempo of drone attacks is likely aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defense resources, compelling Ukraine to divert attention from other threats, such as ballistic and cruise missile strikes. In addition, these drone assaults are part of Russia's broader strategy to weaken Ukraine’s economic resilience, particularly by targeting its energy grid.

The surge in drone attacks is raising significant concerns in Kyiv and among Ukraine's Western allies. Ukrainian officials have warned that the continuous targeting of energy infrastructure could lead to widespread blackouts, severely impacting both civilian life and military operations. As winter approaches, such attacks on power stations, substations, and other critical utilities could lead to further humanitarian challenges, especially in regions already hard-hit by the war.

Ukraine has requested additional Western support, particularly in the form of advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting these UAVs. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are working to adapt their tactics to counter the evolving drone threat, employing electronic warfare and anti-drone systems to mitigate the impact.

As Russia escalates its OWA-UAV campaign, Ukraine faces increasing pressure on multiple fronts. The British MoD’s report highlights not only the unprecedented scale of these drone attacks but also the potential for further intensification as Russia builds up its domestic production capabilities. With winter looming and infrastructure already under strain, the coming months could prove to be a critical period in the ongoing conflict, with both sides seeking to gain the upper hand in a war of attrition.