Australia’s submarine ambitions shaped by US pressure while France remains poised.

The AUKUS program, a central element of Australia's strategic repositioning in the Indo-Pacific, is now entering a period of uncertainty while continuing its industrial trajectory. This apparent contradiction reflects the tension between political intent, industrial requirements and evolving diplomatic alignments. While the Trump administration launched a full review of the agreement in June 2025, initially signed under President Joe Biden in 2021, Canberra continues to make substantial payments to support the U.S. naval shipbuilding sector, aiming to secure, as much as possible, the promised delivery of nuclear-powered submarines. At the same time, France, which had been sidelined in 2021, is gradually re-emerging, driven by renewed diplomatic and defense cooperation since 2022.
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 USS Minnesota (SSN 783) arrives in Western Australia on Feb. 25, 2025 (Picture source: US DoD)

Originally framed as a major strategic commitment between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, the AUKUS agreement aims to equip Australia with eight nuclear-powered attack submarines. The plan calls first for the delivery of three Virginia-class submarines from the United States between 2032 and 2038, followed by the domestic construction of five additional units as part of the SSN-AUKUS program in partnership with the United Kingdom. The overall cost is estimated at roughly 210 billion euros over three decades, covering substantial technology transfers and heavy investment in the allied industrial bases.

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the agreement has come under strategic review by the Pentagon. The review is being led by Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, who is known for his reservations about any capability transfers that could weaken U.S. naval superiority. One of the central concerns is the state of the U.S. submarine industrial base, currently unable to meet even its own fleet renewal targets, operating at a production rate 25 percent below its stated objectives. U.S. law also requires that, prior to any submarine transfer, the sitting president certify that such an export would not degrade the U.S. Navy’s undersea capabilities. Within this uncertain environment, Canberra is increasingly concerned about being left without a viable solution despite its financial commitments.

These concerns have not resulted in a freeze of contractual obligations. On the contrary, Australia confirmed that it made a second payment of 800 million U.S. dollars to the American shipbuilding sector in the second quarter of 2025, bringing its total contributions to 1.6 billion dollars. This financing, agreed in March 2023, is intended to expand U.S. industrial capacity and speed up production of Virginia-class submarines. Canberra has pledged to contribute a total of 2 billion dollars by the end of 2025. According to Defense Minister Richard Marles, this investment is essential for meeting delivery timelines, training Australian engineers on-site, and establishing the industrial foundation required for building the future SSN-AUKUS submarines in Adelaide. Simultaneously, an equivalent amount has been pledged to the United Kingdom to support its naval industry.

Despite these dual financial and industrial efforts, concerns persist. Washington now conditions the continuation of the agreement on further commitments. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has requested that Australia raise its defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, up from the current 2 percent. Additionally, some observers suggest the U.S. could require political commitments in return for transferring sensitive technology. This could include formal support from Canberra in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This gradual tightening of terms introduces strategic uncertainty that may create room for France to re-enter the discussion.

Since the election of Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in 2022, Franco-Australian relations have stabilized. The cancelled 56-billion-euro agreement signed in 2016 with Naval Group, which had provided for the construction of twelve conventionally powered submarines, remains a contentious historical episode. Nonetheless, the two countries have resumed defense dialogue, as demonstrated by recent joint exercises in the Indo-Pacific. France’s ambassador in Canberra, Pierre-André Imbert, has described the defense partnership as being at a very good level and has not ruled out a return to industrial talks if AUKUS were to collapse. "We are always in dialogue with our Australian friends. For now, they have chosen AUKUS. If that changes, if they ask, we will see," he stated.

The current situation reflects an unstable coexistence between concrete financial commitments and unresolved strategic uncertainty. Australia continues to fund AUKUS at scale while operating within a shifting political context shaped by developments in U.S. policy. This cautious posture may prove effective if Washington confirms its commitments. If not, Canberra could be compelled to revisit a French alternative, perceived as technologically sound and less exposed to diplomatic unpredictability. France, while understated, remains in position.