Breaking News: Ukraine Fires Barrage of Tochka-U Ballistic Missiles in Support of Attacks on Russian Regions.

On August 11, 2024, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian armed forces launched one of their most extensive attacks on Russian territory, using a combination of attack drones and Tochka-U NATO code-named SS-21 Scarab ballistic missiles. This marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, with Ukraine directly targeting multiple regions within Russia, including Kursk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Oryol in western Russia.
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Training of Tochka-U Ballistic Missile System Crews. ( Picture source General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)

The most severe impact was felt in Russian Kursk region, where Tochka-U ballistic missiles were fired, including in the vicinity of the Kursk railway station. Russian air defense systems were activated across five regions, successfully intercepting four Tochka-U missiles. Despite the interceptions, debris from one of the missiles caused damage to a multi-story residential building, highlighting the high stakes of this latest phase of the conflict. In addition to the missiles, 14 aircraft-type drones were reportedly shot down over the Kursk region.

According to the military balance, before the war, the Ukrainian armed forces were equipped with 90 9K79 Tochka launchers, NATO code-named SS-21 Scarab. Ukraine inherited a significant number of Tochka-U missiles and launchers from the Soviet Union after its dissolution in 1991. it is estimated suggest that Ukraine possessed a substantial stockpile of missiles at the time of independence. Over the years, the number of operational systems and available missiles has likely decreased due to usage, wear and tear, and a lack of new production.

The use of Tochka-U tactical missiles represents a notable aspect of Ukraine’s military strategy in this cross-border incursion. The Tochka-U, also known as the SS-21 Scarab by NATO, is a Soviet-era short-range ballistic missile system. It is known for its mobility and precision, capable of delivering a variety of warheads, including high-explosive, submunitions, and even chemical warheads, though there is no indication of non-conventional payloads being used in this instance.

The Tochka-U ballistic missile system is mounted on a mobile launcher vehicle, allowing for rapid deployment and repositioning. It has a range of up to 120 km and is designed to strike tactical targets such as command centers, airfields, and infrastructure, making it a potent tool in Ukraine's arsenal for disrupting Russian operations and logistics.

The Tochka-U missile is equipped with a warhead that can carry different types of payloads, including high-explosive, fragmentation, and submunitions, with a typical warhead weighing around 482 kg. The most common warhead is the high-explosive fragmentation type, designed to create a powerful blast and disperse shrapnel over a wide area, making it effective against both personnel and infrastructure. The area of destruction for a Tochka-U missile depends on the type of warhead used and the nature of the target. For the most common high-explosive fragmentation warhead, the area of destruction can cover a radius of approximately 200-300 meters from the point of impact. The blast and fragmentation effect can cause severe damage to structures, vehicles, and personnel within this range.

The ongoing Ukrainian operation in Kursk, now in its sixth day, is unprecedented in the conflict that has been raging for over two years. While Ukraine has previously targeted Russian border regions like Belgorod with airstrikes and small-scale sabotage missions, the Kursk offensive marks the first time that regular Ukrainian forces, including special operations units, have penetrated deep into Russian territory. This bold move underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing intensity of military engagements between the two nations.

As the situation develops, the use of Tochka-U ballistic missiles by Ukrainian forces will likely be scrutinized for its implications on both the tactical and strategic levels of the conflict. The missiles' deployment signifies Ukraine's willingness to leverage its available military assets to achieve significant operational objectives within Russian borders, potentially altering the dynamics of the war in the coming weeks.